re: Timing the market

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We also need to look at things like maximum downdraw, for example. In other words, when things didn't work how bad was it?

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I can tell you that when things didn't work out as you say, it was not bad at all considering you never really lost a substantial amount. The only losses came when the market quickly declined after an initial rebound over the 50 wk MA, which was not many. Staying out for the majority of the bear markets and bubble bursts easily made up for those losses.

The big disadvantage to this strategy would be losing out on some gains waiting for the price to move past the 50 wk MA. But again, staying out during the really bad bear markets easily made up for it.

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How much of good performance can be attributed to just four or five trading days?

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There weren't certain days that made up the majority of gains, it was more like certain years. You weren't jumping in and out of the market on a day to day basis. The biggest gains came from the years immediately following bear markets and bubble bursts, when you were able to avoid the big loss and get back in at a lower price point.

As I said, this is still a long term hold strategy. And I will say that it would probably only work over a long time span, 30-40 years or so, where it is inevitable that will see major bear markets and declines.

For instance, I'm sure during the long 90's bull market, simply staying in the market would've outperformed this strategy by a bit. The 50 wk MA stayed on an upward trajectory for the entire decade, and the price only dipped below it a few times. Thus jumping out of the market on such declines and jumping back in when the price again passed the 50 wk MA, you would have missed out on some gains.