re: BOIL has become predictable

I think Skule will be fine at $17 also. I'm not rubbing anything in either. No one likes their team to lose football games, and no one likes to lose money either.

The $17 average cost in is slightly high. If you want to feel better, go back through here and see what my initial price in was on my UNG short. It dropped I'm guessing 80%, and I had to average all the way down. And I mean all the way. Some of these calls were trading at below .10 at their darkest point. I had paid as high as about $2 if I remember correctly for my first entry point.

BOIL, and natural gas might be predictable (on a macro level) but there is nothing easy about taking positions contrary to the market, especially when the market and fundamentals are extremely disconnected. You have to dig deep, show discipline and have faith that logic and supply/demand eventually make it in to the pricing.

I was set to lose a bunch. My trade became profitable one day before expiration. Close call.