re: Weak Retail Numbers = More Fed Pumping

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Not an expert either, but hyper inflation is a huge possibility.

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PCE inflation readings are at their lowest levels in history, hyper inflation is not a huge possiblity by any means. Money supply is a very misconstrued notion, obviously you need velocity to pick up before actual inflation kicks in, but even the notion of the "money supply" needs to be deconstructed before you get a true feeling for whats in the system. Much of the built up M2 is still in bank deposits, very easily controlled by the Fed. They can raise reserve requirements, or just repo back as much of the funds that they want back to themselves. In application they will just communicate the repo way before actually doing it to not disrupt the banks. Until there is a broad, meaningful pickup in lending by the average consumer then its going to be difficult to see 3+% inflation.