re: Best pick of the 1st round (NFL.com)

first off, you still seem to believe that I think KV will be some kind of bust or disaster. He absolutely will not. He will contribute immediately, and be a solid player for us for years. My problem is that in this draft there were players that could do the exact same thing as late as the 3 rd round. Also, I never said anything about a bunch of ppl expecting him to be a pro bowler. I personally expect both jarvis jones and matt elam to be pro bowlers but that is another topic for discussion.

second, your entire defense primarily relies on the opinions of others. the only thing you offered against anything I said, ANY of the clips i posted, ANY of the responses to the "evidence" you provided of him against tavon austin was this

quote:

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you can't even acknowledge Vaccaro was stride-for-stride on every play I gave you as evidence. That's a fact. Thus, your hypothesis that "TA would have gotten open if..." is pure speculation & discounts itself. Vaccaro was with TA step-for-step.

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I assume you're talking about the play in which KV was about 7 yards off the line and TA ran about a 12 yard in? then GS had to get rid of the ball due to the pressure, and TA had already gotten inside vaccaro but the pass was wide but still hit austin in the hands. You are now saying that if the QB had had a little more time, the guy that runs 4.34 would not have been able to create more separation against the guy that runs a 4.63? Not to mention, like I said in the other thread, the pressure forced the early throw, which didnt give TA time to get separation (even though he still got his hands on the ball). The fricking announcers words immediately after the play were "intended for tavon austin, who stretched out for it, but the one thing you have to credit this texas team - they have been getting pressure on Geno Smith." Obviously in response to him having to get rid of the ball early.

and as to using si, wlater football, the entire nfl draft history, numerous studies have proved it to be more or less a crap shoot averaged out over time. What is far from a crap shoot is studying successful organizations and their valuations of players relative to unsuccessful organizations' valuations. What writers write about prospects is irrelevant immediately after the draft, since teams' grading of players on average is usually congruent, and there have a been nearly as many busts as successes in the first rounds. What is accurate is what they are writing about the picks years later.

but enough of this. I'm done arguing with you, so let's make it interesting. I dont have a ton of money, but lets make the base bet $100. This will all be predicated on KV starting for us, but if you're willing to put your money where your mouth is, we will have to adjust as the season approaches and his expected PT becomes clear.

-I'll give you 10 to 1 odds on $100 that KV averages at least one bad angle per game that leads to a 13+ yard gain

-I'll give you 6.5 to 1 odds on $100 that KV at least 2 personal fouls for unsportsmanlike conduct, illegal hit, targeting, etc, and is fined at least once in the course of the season.

-I'll give you 4 to 1 odds on $200 that at least 4 catchable balls hit KV in the hands and he drops it, OR 8 to 1 odds on $100 that he drops at least 2 catchable ints, or 16 to 1 odds on $100 that he drops at least 1 catchable ball. (all of course dependent on him putting himself in position TO catch the ball enough times)

we would obviosly need to tweak payouts, discuss what online intermediary to use, how to objectively define the events, etc, and obviously outside of TD due to your celebrity status. but this prop bet is open to anyone by the way. but my finances could only handle 2-3 takers atm