re: Dow normally dips during the summer?

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Yeah, you are probably right.

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Does that chart account for costs associated with moving in and out of equities and converting to cash/bonds?

Investors selling in May incur taxes on short-term capital gains and higher transaction costs than investors who simply buy-and-hold.

I'm sure that there is a seasonal component to stocks' price appreciation that is inconsistent with efficient markets, but these data aren't enough to judge the efficacy of a seasonal switching strategy.

Long story short, buy and hold is more efficient, less risky, and less work.