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re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft
Posted on 12/28/12 at 9:32 am to tduecen
Posted on 12/28/12 at 9:32 am to tduecen
The goal with your early picks is not to pick the top player, but ones that are least likely to flame out. This is why you pick the QB early.
Rodgers, Brees, and Brady were drafted as the top three QB's. Look at where they ended. Very rarely do top QB's flame out.
On the other hand, the turnover of RB's is risky. Teams are far more likely to move a new back than a new QB. Furthermore, the player who ends up in the endzone with TD's are pretty damn random. Look at Shady with his decrease in TD's from like 20 to 4 or 5 (despite missing games - the TD pace fell precipitously).
Foster, Rice, and McCoy were the top three RB's drafted. You hit on two out of three and only one of the three ended up in the top three (of course, Arian in fourth is not bad at all).
Just too much of a risk taking a RB first when you get Brees, Rodgers, or Brady.
Rodgers, Brees, and Brady were drafted as the top three QB's. Look at where they ended. Very rarely do top QB's flame out.
On the other hand, the turnover of RB's is risky. Teams are far more likely to move a new back than a new QB. Furthermore, the player who ends up in the endzone with TD's are pretty damn random. Look at Shady with his decrease in TD's from like 20 to 4 or 5 (despite missing games - the TD pace fell precipitously).
Foster, Rice, and McCoy were the top three RB's drafted. You hit on two out of three and only one of the three ended up in the top three (of course, Arian in fourth is not bad at all).
Just too much of a risk taking a RB first when you get Brees, Rodgers, or Brady.
1
Posted on 12/28/12 at 9:43 am to Vicks Kennel Club
Imo its all about getting the right value for each position. For example, in 7 money leagues this year and remarkably went 7-0 with 1rst place finishes. All different leagues with different scoring anywhere from 8 - 20 teams. The number of teams In the league is going to play a big part. For example. Everything over 14 teams I would take an elite qb with a high pick bc the pt differential bw the top and guys that you can grab in a later round will be huge as compared to being able to get somewhat decent rb n wr production in the same situation. In my 12 team and fewer leagues I stock piled early on top rbs and wrs and took a couple gambles on position players such as cj spiller and Cobb. By doing that was able to grab Matt Ryan in the later rounds of multiple drafts bc I felt their offense would explode this year. The gamble paid off and got huge production out of Ryan but still would of won w slightly above average production out of him. All In all I think its just value based drafting and what you feel you can get in the later rounds either way.
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