How much are rankings worth

bitches gotta bitch

I posted this on the Recruiting Board earlier. I'm posting it again....

Okay, so grabbed the the Rivals top 100 classes from 2005-2011 and looked at the total numbers of eventual all americans from 2009-2011.

I used wikipedia as it is most comprehensive and lists every player named AA by any service. Whatever, I'm not looking to get published.

I know AA is not the end all be all, obviously, but it's an indicator of how rankings translate on the field. I'd rather have a team of players ranekd 101-180 than the top 10 and the rest garbage.

Results as you would expect: being highly ranked doesn't guarantee success but it seems to increase the probability. It's a very inexact science so you shouldn't get too high or too low based on these rankings.

In 3 years, you have 47 players coming from the rivals 100 list in their respective year (Players are double counted if they make multiple teams, Patrick Peterson, Andrew Luck, etc.). In total there were 47 of 221 players ranked in the Rivals 100 (21.2%).

Average Rank: 38.3
Median Rank: 30
Range: 97 (2-99)

I didn't do this as some justification for LSU's "poor" recruting class, I did it because I'm bored and curious. Regarding LSU, do think we lost some guys we should have had, and that sucks, but we filled our needs and got some great players who are excited to be Tigers.

Interesting to see the list and where they were ranked:

2011 AA
#68 Andrew Luck

#6 Trent Richardson

#15 Sammy Watkins

6 Robert Woods

#62 Orson Charles

#60 Barrett Jones

#11 Matt Kalil

#14 Alex Okafor

#94 Fletcher Cox

#72 Jarvis Jones

#11 Dre Kirkpatrick

#55 Mark Barron

#30 T.J. McDonald

2010 AA
#68 Andrew Luck

#28 Cameron Newton

10 Marcus Lattimore

#9 A.J. Green

#99 Alshon Jeffery

#61 Lee Ziemba

#12 Michael Brewster

#2 DaQuan Bowers

#93 Drake Nevis

#9 Vontaze Burfict

#5 Patrick Johnson

#55 Mark Barron

#71 Rahim Moore

#41 Cliff Harris

2009 AA
8 C.J. Spiller

9 A.J. Green

85 Dorin Dickerson

70 Bryan Bulaga

76 Derrick Morgan

15 Brandon Graham

51 Ndamukong Suh

4 Gerald McCoy

64 Brian Price

31 Jared Odrick

35 Rolando McClain

13 Brandon Spikes

5 Sergio Kindle

59 Joe Haden

5 Patrick Johnson

3 Eric Berry

16 Taylor Mays

90 DeAndre McDaniel

71 Rahim Moore

27 Greg Reid

quote:

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I see people getting all worked up over these rankings but honestly, has there been ANY evidence that these rankings directly correlate to on the field and programatic success?

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I made a spreadsheet with the Rivals top 50 classes from 2002 to 2012 and also the average end of season rankings (coaches and ap) for teams from 2000-2011. I ran out of time to correlte them all but will do it tomorrow. I'll forward the Excel to anyone interested.

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as there been ANY evidence that these rankings directly correlate to on the field and programatic success?

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Sure. the teams that rank higher on recruiting are usually more successful. About as clear cut as it gets IMO. Of course you're gonna have some misses and some guys like Luck who were underrated, but overrall those lists are pretty on point.

Look for yourself. Here are the Rivals Top 10 classess for all current players (except Kase Keenum?)


2007
1 Florida
2 USC
3 Tennessee
4 LSU
5 Texas
6 South Carolina
7 Auburn
8 Notre Dame
9 Georgia
10 Alabama


2008
1 Alabama
2 Notre Dame
3 Florida
4 Ohio State
5 Miami (FL)
6 Oklahoma
7 Georgia
8 USC
9 Florida State
10 Michigan

2009
1 Alabama
2 LSU
3 Ohio State
4 USC
5 Texas
6 Georgia
7 Florida State
8 Michigan
9 North Carolina
10 Tennessee

2010
1 USC
2 Florida
3 Texas
4 Auburn
5 Alabama
6 LSU
7 Oklahoma
8 UCLA
9 Tennessee
10 Florida State

2011
1 Alabama
2 Florida State
3 Texas
4 USC
5 Georgia
6 LSU
7 Auburn
8 Clemson
9 Oregon
10 Notre Dame

I don't know why so much is made of ranking a recruiting class other than it's just human nature. You really don't know what that class is going to be until the players in it get to their junior and senior years or gone on. The sidenotes to college recruiting are full of 4 and 5 star recruits bombing and just as many 3 star recruits becoming super stars. It's just recently that I've decided the Bama's 2008 class was a great one but most of the signees have moved on.

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Providince
How much are rankings worth


Here is a list to Rivals top 100 for 2009: LINK

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For making Bets , now I guess you could say future bets

actually it proved out since most of 2009 played last year for LSU. Next year would have been monster if they had stayed. If all holds true Bama will win it again for the next 5 years or so.