The ONLY ways LSU plays in the National Championship (Long)

LSUmatt gets alot of respect around here for his BCS understanding, and he recently asked me to take over his BCS threads when he decides to retire from the Rant. I would hope that some of that respect would be extended to me and this thread.

There is alot of speculation on what would need to happen for LSU to make it to the "Big Show." I would like to end the speculaion and give you the scenarios for the ONLY things that can get LSU into the game. Granted, LSU has a huge game this weekend, and has 4 games remaining, but I am not a player, so there is no distraction created by discussing the future. Also, before this thread gets eaten alive by Negatigers or Negatigers disguised as Realitigers, we will assume LSU wins out. It is a big assumption, but it is possible, and it is the underlying basis on which this discussion will start. Also, there are a ton of "ifs" in this thread. If you do not think these things will happen, that is fine. I am not saying they will either. I am just showing you what COULD happen to get LSU into the game. I have also provided the chance that I think a given scenario happens indepedent of LSU winning out. i.e., if LSU wins out, there is an X/Y chance that they get to the NC under this scenario.

Note: A team DOES NOT have to win its conference or division to go to the BCS NC. Rematches are also not "forbidden." Case in point: 2006 Michigan was c-hair away from playing tOSU, but the COMPUTERS, not the humans, kept them out. The humans had Florida and Michigan in an almost dead heat. The computers made the final decision.

LSU v. Auburn in BCS can happen if:

Auburn wins out and:

1)Oregon loses to anyone. Even if they win out, their computer ranking will be terrible. (I know they are #2 now, but watch...) A loss effectively puts them out of the race, under these circumstances.

2)Big 12 champ has to have 2 losses, or else they go over LSU. Even though 11-1 Missouri, as a North runner-up to Nebraska, would probably have a higher computer average than LSU, being the 2nd best team in the SEC will get LSU more human votes than being the 2nd best team in the Big 12. Like it or not, as far as the BCS computers are concerned, the Big 12 is the creme de la creme of the conferences this year, but the SEC perception will carry LSU past 11-1 Missouri in the human polls enough to squeak into the championship game.

3)Boise loses OR they play like shite to end the season and are penalized by the humans.If they win out, they are the hardest team to pass. Ironically, the computers still like them quite a bit, and they would have a higher computer ranking than LSU if both win out, but if Va Tech, Nevada, and Oregon State end up losing a few more, then the computer ranking will fall with them. Nevada, Hawaii, Virginia Tech, and Oregon State all figure to be in the top 45 if they win the games they are favored and lose the games they are supposed to lose. If Va Tech wins the ACC or Oregon State upsets Oregon, I do not think LSU will be able to catch Boise without a Bronco's loss.

4)TCU/Utah can still be undefeated and mathematically get left out, especially if Boise stays undefeated. If there are two undefeated Non-AQ teams, voters will have a clusterfrick and LSU can eat up 2nd and 3rd place votes. If voters find themselves in a connundrum, and I think they would, their ballots would probably go #2 Non AQ, #3 LSU, and #4 Non-AW. In that case, #2, #3, and #4 would be very close in percentages, and if LSU can get it close enough percentage-wise to where LSU's superior computer score should get them into the game. Obviously, a Boise, TCU, and Utah loss would be ideal.

Chance of happening: 2/10

Or, if Auburn loses to Alabama or Georgia, and wins SEC CG, or goes 12-0 but loses SEC CG finishing at 12-1, and:

#1, #2, and #3 from above. Also:

5) If Auburn is 13-1, LSU is 11-1, TCU is 12-0, and Boise is 12-0, ballots will be insane. LSU would probably even draw 1st place votes, to the dismay of many on this board. The computers would ultimately decide things, and Auburn and LSU, would most likely be #1 and #2 respectively, especially if the scenario #3 takes place with Boise.

Chance of happening: 3/10

Note: A 1-loss tOSU, Oregon, Michigan State, or Wisconsin would NOT get in over LSU, even if they win their conference.

LSU v. Oregon can happen if:

Oregon wins out and:

1) Auburn loses to Chattanooga, or loses twice to anyone else. End of story. LSU will not pass 12-1 Auburn even if that loss is in the SEC CG. Single Auburn loses to Alabama, Georgia, or in the SEC CG will not hurt them enough. In fact, if LSU beats Bama, and Auburn loses to Bama but goes 12-1 with the SEC Championship, I think they will still go to the NC over undefeated Boise and TCU/Utah.

See 2, 3, and 4 from above.

5) If it is September 3rd, 2011, this game will happen!

Chance of happening before September 3rd, 2011: 1/10

LSU v. Boise State in BCS NC:

Boise wins out and:

1) Auburn loses to Chattanooga, or loses twice to anyone else. End of story. LSU will not pass 12-1 Auburn even if that loss is in the SEC CG. Single Auburn loses to Alabama, Georgia, or in the SEC CG will not hurt them enough.

2)Oregon loses to anyone.

3)Big 12 chapion has 2 losses.

4)Utah beats TCU. Utah, even with a TCU win, has a dismal computer ranking. If Boise and TCU are the only undefeated teams left, they will prorably get all of the 1st and 2nd place votes, and LSU's computer ranking will not be enough to surpass them. However, if Utah is the other undefeated, then LSU may steal some 2nd place votes and, combined with their computer ranking, they would get into the game. Plus, two Non-AQ in the BCS NC would solve NOTHING and may be the end of the BCS. On second thought, that may not be a bad thing.

Chance of happening: 5/100

LSU v. TCU in the NC

TCU wins out and:

#1, #2, and #3 from above, plus...

4) Boise loss. Despite playing a weaker schedule than TCU, Boise is returning 21 starters from a team that beat TCU last year, and the human polls have taken notice. They have to lose for TCU to surpass them.

Chance of happening: 2/100

LSU v Utah for the NC if:

Utah wins out and:

1) Auburn loses twice.

2) Oregon loses once.

3) Boise loses once.

4) Big 12 Champion has 2 losses.

In this scenario, LSU would probably be #2 in the human polls, but with some 1st place votes. LSU would also be #1 in the computers unless the
Big 12 North runner-up is 11-1, in which case Nebraska/Missouri would probably be #1 in the computers, but the humans would most likely keep them out of the game. Utah would be hurt by the computers but would still get into the game because of the human polls. LSU would probably be the #1 seed, however, with Utah #2.

Chance of happening: 1/100

LSU v. Oklahoma/Missouri/Nebraska/Oklahoma State if:

One of those teams finishes 12-1 with the Big 12 Title and:

1) Auburn loses twice

2) Oregon, Boise, TCU/Utah all have one loss.

This one is simple. LSU would be #1 or #2 in the computers and polls, with the Big 12 winner being the other #1 or #2 team.

Chance of happening: 5/1000

Missouri can still make it without winning the conference if they win out and:

#1 and #2 from above, plus:

3) Oklahoma and Oklahoma State lose before Big 12 Championship, but one of them beats 11-1 Nebraska in the game.

Missouri would be a strong candidate for #1 in the computers, but would have to pass up the 1 loss Little Eleven champion in the human polls. I think they would.

Chance of this happening: 3/1000

Continued...