Is anyone else thinking of pulling out of the market and going

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My Chase person said that I shouldn't

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Step 1 to financial success, don't listen to the idiot at Chase. I don't know where they get these guys, but the average LSU finance senior would do a better job than those dudes.

Step 2 -get a real advisor. Someone with their own firm.

Step 3 - realize that holding giant amounts of cash is probably a dumb idea. Being liquid is one thing, but put it in a MMA or 90 day T-bills.

Step 4 - Don't because the market is way down. This is the best way to achieve negative alpha. The slogan doesn't go "buy high sell low", FWIW.

Step 5 - Realize that if anyone, anywhere could tell you where the market was going, they would be living the real life of what the average O/T'er does and probably not posting here.


Personal opinion, unless you are super saavy about the market, buy and hold is the best way to go.

If you think the market is overvalued, stop buying stock and start piling up cash for when (if) the correction hits, so that you can take advantage of cheap stock.

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I think Buy and Hold is for chumps

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This is true, but very few people aren't chumps, when it comes to finance. I know millionaires with PhD's in finance that would never attempt to do what you are suggesting doing with your money.

NO ONE is that good and if they are, they are probably getting investigated by the SEC.

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I bought in in 2007 and am still down $30k....

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Poor timing bro. Don't let that skew your view on things for the rest of your life. What if you would have sold at 7000, because you were tired of taking losses?

The smart guys were holding what they had and buying with money that they had piled up while the market was at high valuations and are back into the green now. I told my dad to think about doing this when the market was at 8000 and he made a pretty penny doing so.

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TheHiddenFlask

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Great info, Ive been lurking the markets for some time now and had thought about going in soon but dont plan on it, I wonder what would do me more good reading finance books or read this board.

LINK


LINK
THose are the two books I plan on reading soon. fwiw.


But I need an mp3 file to listen to in the car.

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My post in Russian's finreg thread took less than 2 hrs to come to fruition. I would still hold back, I think there's more room to run here.

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You might have found a niche to corner the market.

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You might have found a niche to corner the market.

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Haha, FTW industries can create a hedge fund division with a specialization in stupid legislation arbitrage.

So you think we're about to enter a period of low and stable growth. What drives your belief in that economic future?

I think its foolish for any serious investor to ignore broad price indicators (p/e if you will for the sake of simplicity) and blindly buy all the time. However, that is a part of my overall macro belief of continued instability in future years, if you feel like we're about to hit the Great Moderation 2.0, I can understand why you would be okay with a buy and hold strategy.

Nobody said it was easy. If you pay attention to markets, you have an area of competency (or moat as Klarman/Buffet call it), and you know and understand your companies well, you can absolutely increase your returns. If you're trying to day trade options, you're probably toast.

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in a volatile market that is controlled almost completly by macro events, investing in dividend paying buy and hold blue chips is probably one of the best things you can do if you want to be in equity...

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Agreed. Investing in solid companies with the potential to provide actual dividend payments and mitigate a loss of principal is almost never a bad strategy. Maybe not "agressive," but that strategy is generally something I favor.

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it would be different if the volatility is caused by events specific to a company where your homework might give you an edge, but that's simply not the case lately

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Disagree. This is precisely why you should. Sprint is down 5% today, is there any reason other than macro events? They're on the precipe of the biggest phone release since the iPhone, certainly the biggest release in the history of the company. The only thing that happened yesterday was that a widely followed tech site published a favorable review. Yet, its down 5%. If you followed the company, would you then not buy it? I would. At the same time, 5 months ago, when it was continuing to flounder with mass customer exodus' and no catalyst (read: new awesome and clearly most dominant phone on the market) would you have bought it, considering the macro level indicators (C/S P/E 6x above historical averages, general economic fuzziness [generalizing here], etc)?


I guess I'm just saying, you can see dips and peaks, relatively speaking, at certain times, if you focus on a few fundamentally sound companies. When the macro events drag them down, you can favorably add to those positions. Admittedly, triyng to see the tops in those is much, much harder. So I guess I'm advocating a "buy and add on dips in general except sometimes when its clear ShitIsHittingTheFanRunForYourLives." I'm sure Rivers is ever more convinced I'm a WHOGAS Permabull now.