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re: Stocks...

Posted on 4/14/10 at 10:32 pm to
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 4/14/10 at 10:32 pm to
Wow. Okay, thank you for the very detailed response. My knowledge of this stuff is confined mainly to what I need in order to be a successful trader, so a lot of the transactional issues you speak of are WAY over my head. When I get into business school, I'll be able to have a much more in depth conversation with you about some of this applied knowledge (or at least that's the hope).

If you don't mind, I may just kind of pick at your response over the course of a few posts as this really is a lot to think about all at once. Two things I'd like to talk about first: Earnings v. Revenues; Taxes

It just seems to me that earnings are what equity investors are most concerned with. How often do you here someone say, "Hey, fizz, when does GOOG report revenues?" Maybe in your line of work you do legitimately hear that. But IME individual investors are fixated on earnings as they are below the line. Revenues mean nothing in and of themselves. It's profit that counts for individual investors. As investopedia says and I agree with:

quote:

Earnings are perhaps the single most studied number in a company's financial statements because they show a company's profitability.


On to taxes. I was off on my thinking the increase in taxes was due to expansion. I'm going off of memory here and it's been a few weeks since they reported. Here is the exact phraseology from the filings:

quote:

We account for income taxes pursuant to the provisions of ASC 740 “Income Taxes” (formerly known as SFAS No. 109, Accounting for Income Taxes ). The effective tax rate was 48 percent for the first quarter of 2010 compared to 15 percent in the first quarter of 2009. In 2009, our valuation allowance that was recorded against deferred tax assets was fully released, resulting in a net tax benefit of $20,291,000. For fiscal 2010, no valuation allowance is necessary as we believe our deferred tax assets will be fully realized. Further, the effective tax rate differs from the statutory corporate tax rate in part due to permanent book/tax differences related to the costs of acquiring a trademark and due to state taxes for various jurisdictions where we are subject to taxation. These factors were the primary drivers resulting in a higher effective tax rate for the first quarter of fiscal 2010.


Any insight into this would be very much appreciated.

Here's another snippet:

quote:

"We generated net income of $694,000 in the first quarter of fiscal 2010 compared to $800,000 for the first quarter of fiscal 2009. Our income before taxes increased by $388,000 or 41 percent. This increase in income before taxes was offset by additional income taxes of $494,000."


As you can see, the increase in taxes really hurt us, but not nearly as much as the expenses incurred from relocating corporate and from increased advertising and marketing fees due to moving into 9 new stores/markets. These expenses will be nonexistent and minimized, respectively, next quarter, in my opinion.

Here are some more snippets:

quote:

Net sales increased 41% to $23.2 million over the prior year comparative period

Gross profit increased 38% to $11.4 million over the prior year
comparative period

Operating income increased 36% to $1.4 million over the prior year comparative period


gross margins decreased 1%, 49 to 50

sg&a increased from 7.1 to 9.7mil or 37%

net income went down to 694k from 800k, ~106k, or 13%

taxes on operating income increased 352%


Am I missing anything? Our margins are fine. Our SG&A will be reduced. Taxes will still be around. But sales, gross profit, operating income, and net income should all be in good shape for next quarter if the past quarter is any indication. Remember that the company does better in Q2 than Q1, better in Q3 than Q2, and best in Q4. It seems the first quarter was a good quarter to hash out a bunch of these one-time expenses as there is more room for outstanding results in later quarters anyway.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/14/10 at 10:59 pm to
quote:

If you don't mind, I may just kind of pick at your response over the course of a few posts as this really is a lot to think about all at once. Two things I'd like to talk about first: Earnings v. Revenues; Taxes



I told you to get a beer, I drank two while I wrote that. Please, take your time, I've got off work tomorrow and Friday. I'm reading Quant and going for a run with my new shoes (maybe some ncaa), and that's it. These are the best kinds of conversations on this board, by far, I enjoy them very much.

quote:

It just seems to me that earnings are what equity investors are most concerned with. How often do you here someone say, "Hey, fizz, when does GOOG report revenues?" Maybe in your line of work you do legitimately hear that. But IME individual investors are fixated on earnings as they are below the line. Revenues mean nothing in and of themselves. It's profit that counts for individual investors.


I personally completely agree with you. I look at the NI number, and I feel like it is more important than EBIT and EBITDA, with CFO/FCFO being a close second. My initial question about revenues is related to my perception of the market's typical reaction to earnings reports. For instance, Alcoa always leads the quarter. They've lost money consistently for a bunch of quarters in a row, but the reaction (at least the past year and a half) is always "but revenue is growing." I'm gauging that off the initial movement of the stock, and of the snippets from analysts in the marketwatch/bloomberg articles I see. Just using that as an example, but I see it all the time. Again, this might be my "market" versus your "market." My market reaction is based off of sell-side analysts quotes and financial media reports, yours seem to be more related to small investors. I think that is the major difference.

My true market following only goes back to 2007, so maybe this is the typical reaction coming out of a recession, just looking for revenue growth, then worrying about efficiency/profitability later. It might also be continuing or be amplified by the ridiculous rally of the last year and the risk trade being back in full force. The easiest way to justify a ridiculous valuation is to focus on revenues and ignore everything else (see: Tech).

I hope that clears up what I was saying, my opinion (earnings are more important) vs what (to me) appears to normally be the market opinion (revenues only matter, frick earnings).

quote:

On to taxes. I was off on my thinking the increase in taxes was due to expansion. I'm going off of memory here and it's been a few weeks since they reported. Here is the exact phraseology from the filings:


I'll break this up into another post and do it later tonight or tomorrow.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/15/10 at 12:31 pm to
IDK that I can provide any color on the tax stuff. If they used up their entire valuation allowance, then they've pretty much shot their load on that unless they start re-reserving. The stuff about trademarks etc would indicate to me that the 1Q book tax rate is the high-water mark on that. Having zero knowledge of taxes associated with purchasing trademarks and/or the state taxes they are subject to, I can't comment on the magnitude of the change at all, unfortunately.

The only thing I would be weary about is basing future quarters off of Q1, especially in light of your comments about how they tend to do better as the year goes on. Q1 09 was apocalyptic from a consumer standpoint, the year-over-year comps are ridiculously easy. To wit:

quote:

However, the extremely strong gains are deceiving as results are being compared to very depressed levels from a year ago, when overall sales tumbled 8.4%, 11.6%, and 10.6% in January, February, and March respectively.

To put in perspective how absolutely dismal 2009 was, consider that in the previous 15+ years, from January 1993 through August 2008, there were a total of only 3 months in which YoY decreases were reported


[LINK]

As Q2 was the beginning of the bounce back phase we've been in for the past year, I think those YoY comps will give you a clearer picture of their progress, and might be a better basis for future expectations of performance.
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