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Started By
Message
Lies, damn lies and statistics
Posted on 10/5/09 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 10/5/09 at 4:41 pm
I've been bumping the Gator boards, mostly lurking. Amazed at the amount of energy being devoted to statistical analysis.
I've also looked at some stat - analysis performed by some ranters. Looking at the stats, LSU should not even show up and play the game this Saturday - the Gators have us beat in every damn stat catagory.
Look at the box score from the Saints game this weekend and leave out the turnovers the Saints forced and you would have a very even game. Stats only exist in a vacuum and ignore the huge variables present in football. Further, with such a small population to pull from, you really cannot glean anything meaningful from stats this time of year.
Three non-stat-driven qualitative measures will (in my opinion) play a huge role leading up to the game this weekend.
1. Tebow. There is no way a responsible MD should let him play. Concussions ARE FREAKING BRAIN INJURIES!! I hate to not see him play, because he is the best college football player I think I have ever seen and I would love for LSU to beat a Tebow-led team. However, the strong odds are that he will not play. Take away Tebow, UF loses its offensive identity. In large measure, they lose their team identity. That's hard to overcome.
2. LSU is so jelling right now. Offense and defense in the last game were a hair away from blowing out GA, but the scoreboard sure did not agree with that statement. LSU had a lot of success running the ball. I am betting UF plays to take away the run and make Jefferson beat them. His timing is coming and he is really going to play well. I can't point to a stat that proves it (other than his freaking win-loss record as a starter), but Jefferson is a winner. He'll be playing in the biggest game of his life in front of a raucus home crowd. I like his chances.
3. Saturday night live. LSU team will be dissected and dissembled this week by the talking heads at ESPN. The game will be played out on paper and on blogs all week. But at 7:00 pm on Saturday, the huge huge advantage that is Tiger Stadium at night will rear its ugly head. LSU will be geeked to play and so will the crowd. If LSU has some early success - it will be 2007 all over again.
And that, my fellow ranters, was AWESOME!!!
I am sure there are other non-stat driven qualitative factors that will paint the picture leading up to the game this week-end. I'll be interested in hearing them. What say you?????
GEAUX TIGERS!!
I've also looked at some stat - analysis performed by some ranters. Looking at the stats, LSU should not even show up and play the game this Saturday - the Gators have us beat in every damn stat catagory.
Look at the box score from the Saints game this weekend and leave out the turnovers the Saints forced and you would have a very even game. Stats only exist in a vacuum and ignore the huge variables present in football. Further, with such a small population to pull from, you really cannot glean anything meaningful from stats this time of year.
Three non-stat-driven qualitative measures will (in my opinion) play a huge role leading up to the game this weekend.
1. Tebow. There is no way a responsible MD should let him play. Concussions ARE FREAKING BRAIN INJURIES!! I hate to not see him play, because he is the best college football player I think I have ever seen and I would love for LSU to beat a Tebow-led team. However, the strong odds are that he will not play. Take away Tebow, UF loses its offensive identity. In large measure, they lose their team identity. That's hard to overcome.
2. LSU is so jelling right now. Offense and defense in the last game were a hair away from blowing out GA, but the scoreboard sure did not agree with that statement. LSU had a lot of success running the ball. I am betting UF plays to take away the run and make Jefferson beat them. His timing is coming and he is really going to play well. I can't point to a stat that proves it (other than his freaking win-loss record as a starter), but Jefferson is a winner. He'll be playing in the biggest game of his life in front of a raucus home crowd. I like his chances.
3. Saturday night live. LSU team will be dissected and dissembled this week by the talking heads at ESPN. The game will be played out on paper and on blogs all week. But at 7:00 pm on Saturday, the huge huge advantage that is Tiger Stadium at night will rear its ugly head. LSU will be geeked to play and so will the crowd. If LSU has some early success - it will be 2007 all over again.
And that, my fellow ranters, was AWESOME!!!
I am sure there are other non-stat driven qualitative factors that will paint the picture leading up to the game this week-end. I'll be interested in hearing them. What say you?????
GEAUX TIGERS!!
Posted on 10/5/09 at 4:45 pm to Debaser
Turnovers. LSU will come to play. Florida will come to play. The team that wins the turnover battle will win the game.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 4:48 pm to Debaser
I agree. I just hope we do the simple things right such as catch the ball and just do your assignment on offense, defense, and special teams. We need to stay disciplined for this game. Also, I hope Death Valley is bringing it for the whole 60 minutes even if we are down in the game. WE CAN WIN THIS GAME!!
Posted on 10/5/09 at 4:52 pm to TigerJack8
Jelling? LSU barely escaped MSU and UGA. Not sure how that would be misconstrued into jelling.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 4:56 pm to gatorrocks
quote:Didn't catch the game, did you?
gatorrocks
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:00 pm to gatorrocks
Having watched all of LSU's games, the goal line stand against MS State was the first inkling of any jelling process. All but the 3rd Q of the GA game - LSU really played well - but had little to show for it.
Winning the game the way LSU did - with the contribution of a few key freshmen - things are starting to click.
You take it for what it is worth, gator fan. It's gonna be a war Saturday night.
Another thing, it would really, really suck if Tebow played and got hurt. Like bad hurt. I would hate that it happened when playing LSU.
Winning the game the way LSU did - with the contribution of a few key freshmen - things are starting to click.
You take it for what it is worth, gator fan. It's gonna be a war Saturday night.
Another thing, it would really, really suck if Tebow played and got hurt. Like bad hurt. I would hate that it happened when playing LSU.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:03 pm to gatorrocks
quote:
gatorrocks
Did you watch the game at all?
Do you understand the word "jelling"?
Your statement makes me believe that your answer to both of those questions will be no.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:03 pm to OTIS2
quote:
Didn't catch the game, did you?
I sure did... Jelling is winning games by 14+ points consistently (See UF last year). Not winning off a freak run in the last 30 seconds of the game or a goal line stand against MSU.
Not saying LSU won't win because they certainly can. Just giving my observations.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:05 pm to gatorrocks
BTW... I'm rewatching it now.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:05 pm to gatorrocks
quote:
Jelling is winning games by 14+ points consistently
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:07 pm to gatorrocks
LSU defense is gelling, not sure about the offense. They came through in crunch time last week though.
Offense is not gelling yet. Hopefully this will be the week.
It has to for LSU to win, or the defense will have to get a ton of turnovers. One, or both.
Offense is not gelling yet. Hopefully this will be the week.
It has to for LSU to win, or the defense will have to get a ton of turnovers. One, or both.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:12 pm to gatorrocks
quote:Matter of opinion. I'd say that 2 touchdowns in 3 miutes of play with drives of 88 and 38 yards is an indicator of "gelling"...not perfction, but certainly evidence of "coming around", or gelling.
I sure did... Jelling is winning games by 14+ points consistently
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:13 pm to OTIS2
I'm not sure you can measure the amount of gelling taking place by the score of the game.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:19 pm to LSUtigerOregon
Without MSU's coach being a moron, and the officials stealing the "W" away from UGA, LSU would have 2 losses in the conference already. The writing is on the wall
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:21 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:Dang...another stealer of my posts. This is exactly my thought.
The team that wins the turnover battle will win the game.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:22 pm to gatorrocks
jelling is a true sophmore leading his team on an 88 yard td drive on the road in the sec
This post was edited on 10/5/09 at 5:23 pm
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:24 pm to GatorBaitUF
the same moron who made your little second coming the player he is?can't have it both ways
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:27 pm to GatorBaitUF
quote:
Without MSU's coach being a moron
Wasn't he just Urban's OC?
FAIL.
quote:A great big FAIL.
and the officials stealing the "W" away from UGA, LSU would have 2 losses in the conference already.
Posted on 10/5/09 at 5:28 pm to GatorBaitUF
quote:
Without MSU's coach being a moron, and the officials stealing the "W" away from UGA, LSU would have 2 losses in the conference already.The writing is on the wall.
Please, God, let the Florida football team buy into this as deeply as the imbecile who posted it has.
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