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Message

Developing My Own Recruiting Rankings
Posted on 8/18/09 at 7:37 pm
Posted on 8/18/09 at 7:37 pm
Update:
Ok, I sat down this morning and jotted down some preliminary ranking categories. I want to attempt to calculate every major category of relevance. Here's a basic idea:
QB:
Starter
All-Conference
All-American
Award Winner (Season and Game)
Years Played
Statistical Markers (2,500 yards, 15 TDs)
NFL Draft
In the case of the statistics, they would be awarded more points for the greater the achievement. Also, INTs, Fumbles, Drops, Low completion percentage could be used to dock points.
What other categories should be considered?
Which categories should be most heavily weighted? (I think awards should count but only slightly since they are so opinion/hype based).
I think the draft should be included (only in terms of where a player was drafted) because a) most of the recruiting sites evaluate based on how a player will perform on the next two levels and b) a players draft status directly affects his university in terms of bringing it clout.
Should I consider changing the weights based on star level? I.e., a 5 star will be judged more severely than a 3 star because a 5 star has greater expectations. Or does that unfairly skew the rankings?
My other thought is that I'll assign numerical values to each of the categories (every year they start it's 1 point etc.). Each player will accrue his overall value in points which will then be divided by his respective star ranking to determine is actual "efficiency value" to the recruiting class.
Thoughts? Additions? Criticisms? Give me insight.
************************************
Just looking for some input whether or not people think this would be a worth endeavor.
I was thinking of developing a Recruiting Efficiency Ranking that would use a certain mathematical equation to rate recruiting classes retroactively. These would be of no use in trying to calculate the current value of a recruiting class, but a tool to look back on previous years' classes and see how they truly stacked up in a mathematical way.
Essentially I would assign values to a player's level of production and achievement - starters get points, all conference more points, all american even more etc. I would also assign a value to the distance from home to the school they chose (only broadly). The further away a prospect the less "efficient" the ranking. However, a lower star player who greatly outperforms his ranking would also be "more efficient".
Essentially, the rankings would be used to determine who is getting the most bang for their buck in recruiting. It would be by no means scientific... just something I thought could be interesting and a different approach to the rankings.
Thoughts?
Ok, I sat down this morning and jotted down some preliminary ranking categories. I want to attempt to calculate every major category of relevance. Here's a basic idea:
QB:
Starter
All-Conference
All-American
Award Winner (Season and Game)
Years Played
Statistical Markers (2,500 yards, 15 TDs)
NFL Draft
In the case of the statistics, they would be awarded more points for the greater the achievement. Also, INTs, Fumbles, Drops, Low completion percentage could be used to dock points.
What other categories should be considered?
Which categories should be most heavily weighted? (I think awards should count but only slightly since they are so opinion/hype based).
I think the draft should be included (only in terms of where a player was drafted) because a) most of the recruiting sites evaluate based on how a player will perform on the next two levels and b) a players draft status directly affects his university in terms of bringing it clout.
Should I consider changing the weights based on star level? I.e., a 5 star will be judged more severely than a 3 star because a 5 star has greater expectations. Or does that unfairly skew the rankings?
My other thought is that I'll assign numerical values to each of the categories (every year they start it's 1 point etc.). Each player will accrue his overall value in points which will then be divided by his respective star ranking to determine is actual "efficiency value" to the recruiting class.
Thoughts? Additions? Criticisms? Give me insight.
************************************
Just looking for some input whether or not people think this would be a worth endeavor.
I was thinking of developing a Recruiting Efficiency Ranking that would use a certain mathematical equation to rate recruiting classes retroactively. These would be of no use in trying to calculate the current value of a recruiting class, but a tool to look back on previous years' classes and see how they truly stacked up in a mathematical way.
Essentially I would assign values to a player's level of production and achievement - starters get points, all conference more points, all american even more etc. I would also assign a value to the distance from home to the school they chose (only broadly). The further away a prospect the less "efficient" the ranking. However, a lower star player who greatly outperforms his ranking would also be "more efficient".
Essentially, the rankings would be used to determine who is getting the most bang for their buck in recruiting. It would be by no means scientific... just something I thought could be interesting and a different approach to the rankings.
Thoughts?
This post was edited on 8/26/09 at 11:47 am
Posted on 8/18/09 at 7:39 pm to OBUDan
Sounds like that would be interesting.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 7:42 pm to OBUDan
Worthwhile. Very important that you develope the methodology first, so as your own personal bias does not influence how you rate what after the fact.
SOmething like the folowing:
Qualified: 1 point
Each year as a starter 3 points
All conference 5 points (per year)
All American 8 points (per year)
1st or 2nd rounder 6 points, then 1 point less per round drafted in.
Major trophy winner 10 points. (heisman, Butkas etc)
this was just off the top of my head, but could give you a framework to start from.
SOmething like the folowing:
Qualified: 1 point
Each year as a starter 3 points
All conference 5 points (per year)
All American 8 points (per year)
1st or 2nd rounder 6 points, then 1 point less per round drafted in.
Major trophy winner 10 points. (heisman, Butkas etc)
this was just off the top of my head, but could give you a framework to start from.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 7:51 pm to MJRuffalo
quote:
SOmething like the folowing:
Qualified: 1 point
Each year as a starter 3 points
All conference 5 points (per year)
All American 8 points (per year)
1st or 2nd rounder 6 points, then 1 point less per round drafted in.
Major trophy winner 10 points. (heisman, Butkas etc)
this was just off the top of my head, but could give you a framework to start from.
Yeah, that is exactly what I'm thinking. I will use a different valuation for each level of different categories and then it would just be simple addition and subtraction.
I thought about this a month ago and had brainstormed a few ideas, but I never wrote them down. I'm trying to remember what elements I had considered.
I remember thinking an out of state player would start out at an immediate disadvantage (just from the notion that it's inefficient and expensive to recruit someone that far away), but could also have a way of recouping that value better than an in-state player. Just can't remember what I was figuring.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 8:05 pm to OBUDan
I owudl probably stay away from the instate/out of state thing. It would just convolute the math.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 8:09 pm to MJRuffalo
quote:
I owudl probably stay away from the instate/out of state thing. It would just convolute the math.
Yeah, I may. My original model was to figure out who was being the most efficient location considered, but it may be better to just consider ranking and so on.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 8:26 pm to TexasTigah
Difficult to set up, but it would be awesome if you can come up with the formula.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 8:27 pm to lynxcat
quote:
Difficult to set up, but it would be awesome if you can come up with the formula.
I'll work on it, and update the original post with the formula once I get it sorted out. I'll take feedback from there.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 8:33 pm to OBUDan
We could come up with a pretty damn good system IMO.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 8:34 pm to OBUDan
Just make sure you have a solid reason for each point valuation. Don't just make it arbitrary.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 8:38 pm to lynxcat
quote:
We could come up with a pretty damn good system IMO.
I think so too. I did something like this a few years back and developed a basic ranking for which schools had produced the best NFL talent.
NFL Talent
It was pretty fun. I think I messed up on a couple of guys and I would be more thorough looking back.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 8:42 pm to MJRuffalo
quote:
Just make sure you have a solid reason for each point valuation. Don't just make it arbitrary.
Yeah, for sure. I'll definitely need to weight certain things, determine which are the most important etc.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 9:18 pm to OBUDan
Great idea. Forget the distance thing, that does not matter and should not be in the calculation.
Assigning a "weight" factor to each category is key.
Assigning a "weight" factor to each category is key.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 9:24 pm to OBUDan
Sounds like a good plan OBU, if you need any help hit us up. 
Posted on 8/18/09 at 9:34 pm to OBUDan
How are you going to calculate a guy's motor?
Posted on 8/18/09 at 9:41 pm to GABlueDog
quote:I don't think you understand what he is trying to do.
How are you going to calculate a guy's motor?
Posted on 8/18/09 at 9:44 pm to MJRuffalo
Thankfully we have you. You just get it.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 9:50 pm to GABlueDog
Yes. If you ask nicely I will explain.
Posted on 8/18/09 at 10:08 pm to GABlueDog
quote:
How are you going to calculate a guy's motor?
Multiply each of his weighted values by 2.
Jacob Hester is the most valuable recruit in the last 40 years.
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