FWIW BOA says sell oil above $100

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Bank of America pointed to the last major oil spike for context. During the financial crisis buildup in 2007 and 2008, crude surged from about $70 per barrel to nearly $140. Oil peaked shortly after the European Central Bank raised interest rates, and within months, the financial system began to unravel. Prices eventually collapsed to around $40 per barrel.

The bank argues that the biggest risk from high oil prices today may not be inflation itself but damage to corporate earnings and financial markets. Banks often serve as the transmission point between financial markets and the real economy, and weakness in bank stocks can signal broader economic stress.

Because of that dynamic, Bank of America recommends a cautious approach if oil pushes above $100, suggesting investors take profits rather than chase the rally.

The firm also outlined several related macro trades, including favoring the U.S. dollar above 100 on the DXY index, buying 30-year Treasury yields above 5%, and looking to buy the S&P 500 if it falls below 6,600.

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