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Pelicans are now 10-19 against the spread

Posted on 12/21/24 at 11:25 pm
Posted by TigerReb7
Oxford
Member since Sep 2020
584 posts
Posted on 12/21/24 at 11:25 pm
Good enough for 29th in the league, just ahead of Phoenix (9-18).

We can't even cover with Vegas giving us double digits or near double digits each game. Fire Willie
Posted by BBJ
BR
Member since Apr 2012
1532 posts
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:34 am to
If you take out the first 5 games they are probably 5-19. I’ve been riding the wave. $$$$$

and you don’t wanna fire Willie till after the season. No reason at this point to start winning or say go .500 and pick 8th. Let’s go all the way
Posted by Dinky Mulberry
Member since Aug 2021
2296 posts
Posted on 12/22/24 at 10:08 am to
quote:


Good enough for 29th in the league, just ahead of Phoenix (9-18).

We can't even cover with Vegas giving us double digits or near double digits each game. Fire Willie


10-19 translates to +8 "units" (whatever your unit bet size is)

BUT...the Pels are currently 5-24 vs the money line...I assume THAT 5-24 would lead to a higher "+ units" for a bettor than the +8 playing the point spread every game...even WITH the bloated ML the Pels have been facing lately.

And an even bigger BUT...the Pels are 1-14 vs the admittedly bloated ML when they play on the road. That "+ unit" result would blow the point spread (10-19) and/or ML at home # (4-10) out of the water.

Gotta admit...it's hard to continuosly pull the trigger on that massively high ML when the Pels are on the road...but as usual...the best way to fight Vegas...is to bet the way they make it "hardest" to do. BTW: Good Luck.
This post was edited on 12/22/24 at 10:50 am
Posted by TigerReb7
Oxford
Member since Sep 2020
584 posts
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:26 pm to
quote:

10-19 translates to +8 "units"
I'm not following, we tracking units the way we track a golf score? You ain't + shite when you win 10 of 39 wagers.
Posted by Dinky Mulberry
Member since Aug 2021
2296 posts
Posted on 12/22/24 at 9:22 pm to
quote:


quote:
10-19 translates to +8 "units"
I'm not following, we tracking units the way we track a golf score? You ain't + shite when you win 10 of 39 wagers.


Probably a poor job on my part tryiing to explain why betting against the Pels would be a profitable plan so far this season.

A "unit" is putting a value on what you consider your standard bet is. Might be $10...$100...or $1000. Then, you can rate a betting strategy on whether it provides you with a net +units or net -units. In your original post you said Pels were currently 10-19 against the spread. So, betting against the Pels on every game this year...you would win 19 and lose 10 so far...a +9 "units" situation but when you include the standard juice of 10% on each of your 10 losers...you end up with basically 19 winners and NOW...11 losers...which is a net +8.

The rest of my post just attempts to compare the "net unit result" of betting one of 3 ways AGAINST the Pelicans. Either straight up against the spread...on all games...or bet the ML, on all games...or lastly, bet against the Pels on the money line, but ONLY on every away game. The 3rd option, BY FAR...will have you winning waaaay more "net units"...at least, so far this season.
This post was edited on 12/22/24 at 9:25 pm
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