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Electoral College

Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:13 am
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:13 am
I was looking at a map the other day. President Trump lost the Elecotoral College in 2020 by < 42,000 “counted ballots”.


Go tomorrow wherever you are. And VOTE. We will deal woth the counting.
Posted by CDawson
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2017
19359 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:53 am to
yep, and we now know that 100's of thousands were illegally counted and submitted.

Banana republic when everyone watching knows that the outcome of this election will be solely decided on whether or not one side can catch the other one cheating and how much they will be able to cheat without being caught.
Posted by PastorJ
Member since Sep 2024
731 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:00 am to
This is what I am thinking. Though Trump could pull in Wis. to make the margin even bigger.

Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:09 am to
Wi is closer than MN.
Georgia Nc are solid.
NV AZ are + 4 ish each AZmaybe More.
OH is i think + 6 ish
Florida is big.
Really its PA and maybe Trump
Wins without. But
He cannibilized 600k early votes. Voter shift shift hold i believe.popular vote dead heat - swing states will
Change. Dems might challenge somewhwre surprising AND lose NH
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 2:10 am
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:13 am to
I will be posting early votes placed by party affilliation shortly
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:15 am to
Lets start Ohio, home of Vance - would be surprising:

This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 2:16 am
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:17 am to
Virgina by Affiliation:
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:19 am to
PA - this is the best one for Trump; assuming no replubicans changed parties and independents vote 50:50 he wins PA by 600k votes;
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:21 am to
WI registration is different - but remeber tbey sent Jill Stein and were all in on RFK:
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 2:23 am
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:24 am to
MI:
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:26 am to
Those are current data; election day. Compared
To 2020 it is nearly a massive difference.
Posted by timdonaghyswhistle
Member since Jul 2018
20804 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:28 am to
quote:

To 2020 it is nearly a massive difference.


Any theories on why the early voting in MI is more balanced yet PA is seen as a more ripe target for Trump?
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:32 am to
Size and avilaibility of polling stations; I believe MI alows offers paid time off to vote. PA voting is a travesty at all levels
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:39 am to
Specifically “for Trump” in PA its two inner cities(philly and Pitt) with 6 of 8 million of the ballots. So rural countieslss privilege when one inner city ballot is cast against them. Or counted.
In 2020 philly, fulton, maricopa, appeared to be outworked by their returns.
If new york And cali can count them: the margins were so slim for EV and PV.
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:40 am to
I dont think PA counted voters last election cycle; i think they counted ballots.
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:51 am to
I have yet equate the difference
Bettween ballots requested v returned. I have used only returned. If anyone wants to follow along
NBC Filth collab of State SoS data
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:14 am to
Based on the “returned” data not requested. Dems need to outperform
Election say numbers to win the popular vote. Based on requested ballots - it becomes murky. Is a reauested (ev - or mail in) ballot Unreturned on election day because if we add the totals its 65 mil votes for each candidate at 100% return rate.
Posted by Mid Iowa Tiger
Undisclosed Secure Location
Member since Feb 2008
23938 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:02 am to
quote:

He cannibilized 600k early votes.


Interesting claim. Do you have any data to back this up? I haven’t seen hard data, I have heard campaign surrogates say they are mostly low propensity voters who voted early.

Posted by fjlee90
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2016
8519 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:10 am to
quote:

Those are current data; election day. Compared To 2020 it is nearly a massive difference.


How big? Sorry I’m unavailable to do the research on my own but the 2% split nationally stood out to me.

Also, how many more/less early/mail in bs 2020?

Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:26 am to
Blue wall is 600,000 less than it was in 2020. Meaning their early vote numbers were cannibilized for clarification
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