Arizona Early Vote Final

Republicans will outvote Democrats on election day tomorrow and win late-arriving ballots; their lead will likely grow beyond 300,000 total raw ballots, and the final electorate is likely to finish somewhere between R +8.5 and R +10.

It goes without saying that Harris will not win 68% of independents in Arizona. However, the danger to Trump and down-ballot Republicans is more about the R-to-D crossover vote than just how independents will vote.

What would a realistic vote share be for Harris for the race to be a statistical tie?

Win 9% of Republicans
Win 97% of Democrats
Win 55% of Independents

It's possible, IMHO, but unlikely. Harris will need to expand Biden's margins in Maricopa and Pima to account for the likely gains Trump makes everywhere else.

Advantage Trump."

If Lake wasn’t such a shitty candidate she’d win by a mile.

Lake is a great candidate, not sure what you’re smoking

Shitty Candidate? You must be talking about Gallego who divorced his 9 month pregnant wife for a DC lobbyist and his Father is in jail for being a drug smuggler.

So what time do you think Fox calls AZ for Harris?

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the danger to Trump and down-ballot Republicans is more about the R-to-D crossover vote than just how independents will vote.

Will be statistically zero.

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Exactly. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that more D’s crossover to vote Trump than R’s voting Harris.

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Lake is a great candidate, not sure what you’re smoking

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I agree, and smoking hot to boot.

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SDVTiger

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Hes not a high iq poster

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Rich coming from you.

If Trump wins, she wins but by fewer votes. Some people have just bought into the bs said about her.

Democrats often outperform against the registration numbers. It’s going to come down to the very wire tomorrow