re: I think we need USC and Vandy to lose tomorrow

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You are leaving out all the context that is in LSU’s favor and only focusing on the bad

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That's what this board always does at this time of the year. LSU just needed to sweep Ole Miss to get in is what the board said. Well that happens, so they raise the bar higher. Now they need to do this and this. And you can bet your arse off if they reach that bar they will move it again and say we need more to get in.

Then whenever LSU falls short of the 4th bar they will melt and call out players and coaches and say we will be sitting at home for regionals.

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You are leaving out all the context that is in LSU’s favor and only focusing on the bad.

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No, I see a lot of people saying this, but let's be realistic.

You have to focus on the bad, because normally the discussion is whether we'll be a Top 8 seed and host the Super Regionals, too. Sometimes the question is whether we host a regional or not.

This year, the question is if we even make it. It's fair to list the reasons why we won't host, and may be left out; and then come back with why we should get in.

Overall record= I think we're 2 wins under the hosting bar. We're 36-20, I think had we been 38-18 we'd be in discussion for the final regional host.

Conference record= that would knock us out of hosting, I think 3 more wins might have done it- 16-14 maybe, 17-13 for sure. I'd say 17-13 might even have us as one of the Top 8.

I think the sweeps by Tennessee and Arkansas prevent a Top 8, we probably needed to go 1-2 vs at least one of them. If we had against both, along with the 2-1 against A&M, we'd likely be #7 or #8, in line to host a super regional.

Other 13-17 teams in SEC= this does hurt our case. Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt are all solid, good teams (as we are), who are in no way near the top of the SEC. We're all lumped in together, along with South Carolina, with Fla probably bringing up the rear. That's the group the committee has to actively look at, and decide whether they had a good enough season to make the playoffs.
The fact that we lost the series to all of them is going to factor in; it isn't that we beat A, and lost to B, while A beat B and you have to sort it all out. We didn't win a series against anyone.

I think it comes down to whether Florida's overall record knocks them out, vs South Carolina's late collapse, vs our not beating any of the teams we're competing against.
If I had to guess today, I'd say Florida is out because of record, the SEC gets 10, and we're in the last group in. I say it that way, because I think they lump us together, remove Florida, and then say "ok, spread this group out as 3 seeds".