re: 5/6 Oklahoma/Kansas severe weather - High Risk- PDS Tor Watch

quote:

---

I don’t mean apples to apples. I mean from a probability standpoint.

---

They're both High Risk, so you have that. Duration of the most threatening supercell storms and how the setup should play out is entirely different. Shear was much higher on 4/27. There was enough CIN and the shear vector across a large geographical area was perfect so that it squashed any chance of those storms on 4/27 lining out. We don't have that with this setup. The window for discrete supercells is smaller than 4/27, these storms should line out tonight and could become a significant wind event as the line moves east into the night. The window where we will likely see discrete supercells fire has a very high ceiling.