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re: April jobs number 175k, well below 240k estimates. Markets rally
Posted on 5/3/24 at 9:52 am to wiltznucs
Posted on 5/3/24 at 9:52 am to wiltznucs
quote:
We throw this term around far too casually. We’re nowhere near such a phenomenon.
We're closer than you think.
Inflation is not only high, but has been rising (despite sustained rate hikes), growth slowed tremendously in Q1 and Unemployment is starting to tick up.
Unemployment isn't really considered "high" until it gets above 5% (the annual average for the last ~century is about 5%, if memory serves), so we still have a ways to go there.
Job creation finally dropped and Unemployment has moved up, likely we can assume economic activity is slowing.
All in all, we're likely about halfway into a "stagflation" scenario and trending points toward that movement toward stagflation to continue.
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