re: Don’t be surprised if Russia uses a tactical Nuke soon

The big game changer here is that the latest supplement bill includes ATCAMS with approximately 300km range..,

That in effect extends the active range of Ukrainian targets an additional 100km. That is a lot of bridges, airfields, rail yards, and staging areas that are now legit targets.

What makes this whole invasion so strange is that Russia has a very limited rail network leading up to Ukraine, with some serious bottle necks in Russia proper. With an added 100km of effective range, the Ukrainians cam finally hit logistic hubs that will do more than just marginally disrupt the flow of troops, equipment and supplies.

The Kerch bridge is done. To many ways to now overwhelm the current anti air and maritime nets to accept that nothing will get through. Same with multiple rail yards both Rostovodon and Belgorod. Multiple airfields around Sevastopol are now under the umbrella of multiple weapons systems that can’t cope with additional incoming ordnance. My guess is you will see a shift to overwhelm the air defense systems and systemically wipe out many of the air defenses and short range fighter/fighter bomber to allow other cheaper and more plentiful systems be used to continue to clear the peninsula.

The real question is what does that extra 100km do if and when Ukraine gets F15s? If you have rolled back the air defenses by an additional 100kms what does that do to the operational range of Russian air defenses over the front?

The addition of longer range missile systems is a much bigger deal than most of the other adds (beyond the artillery shells) and is the one real “new” change in the operational capabilities of Ukraine…