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re: Debt increases by president

Posted on 4/20/24 at 7:08 pm to
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
57528 posts
Posted on 4/20/24 at 7:08 pm to
quote:

George W. Bush increased debt by 105%. I'd forgotten it was that much of a change.
Reagan increased it by 186%.
I had a modeling mentor that taught me to always be suspicious of anyone using percentages. ^ is the perfect example of why.

Also that GWb number was almost all in 2008, which the outgoing president gets “credit” for, but in that year’s case it includes the massive “stimulus” bill that was passed under Obama, and TARP (which Obama got the profit credit for). Hell, the 2007 deficit was mere $160 Billion.

quote:

There is some debate about Reagan's policies, and I believe the main culprit was increasing defense spending by 35%.
Nope. Just as today Congress outspent revenue. Reagan wet as far as vetoing a budget bill. Congress overrode it. Not one year’s spending was at or lower than the presidential budget request. None.
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
12925 posts
Posted on 4/20/24 at 7:21 pm to
quote:

I had a modeling mentor that taught me to always be suspicious of anyone using percentages. ^ is the perfect example of why.

Why even put percentages. Just arrows pointing up or down. I went to the SoftBank school of presentations.
Posted by POTUS2024
Member since Nov 2022
12265 posts
Posted on 4/20/24 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

I had a modeling mentor that taught me to always be suspicious of anyone using percentages. ^ is the perfect example of why.

There are times to use percentages and other times not to. I'm just giving what the website provided. If someone wants to do the math on inflation-adjusted dollars, and then look at percentages, they can knock themselves out on that one.

quote:

Also that GWb number was almost all in 2008, which the outgoing president gets “credit” for, but in that year’s case it includes the massive “stimulus” bill that was passed under Obama, and TARP (which Obama got the profit credit for). Hell, the 2007 deficit was mere $160 Billion.

This is a good point but your numbers don't really agree with what Treasury provides. The jump from FY07 to FY08 was a trillion. The big jump from 08 to 09 is probably stuff that Obama added after taking office, though. For example here are FY closeout dates with the debt amounts:
9/30/10 13561623030891.70
9/30/09 11909829003511.70
9/30/08 10024724896912.40
9/30/07 9007653372262.48
9/30/06 8506973899215.23
9/30/05 7932709661723.50
9/30/04 7379052696330.32
9/30/03 6783231062743.62
9/30/02 6228235965597.16
9/30/01 5807463412200.06

quote:

Nope. Just as today Congress outspent revenue. Reagan wet as far as vetoing a budget bill. Congress overrode it. Not one year’s spending was at or lower than the presidential budget request. None.

I can't find numbers on how much of each deficit belonged to military spending but 35% is a big jump and I found this: Reagan increased the defense budget by 35% to accomplish these goals. As a result, defense spending grew faster than general spending, rising from $154 billion in FY 1981 to $295 billion in FY 1989. Overall, government spending still grew; From 1981 through 1989, Reagan increased the budget by $390 billion, according to the Office of Management and Budget's historical tables. link
Defense spending alone seems to have been about 36% of the increase. Defense spending was part of his 'peace through strength' platform. As for the rest, I don't know how much was due to Congress.

Those were good points that you brought up and that site made no attempt to reconcile those things. Also, they probably should have done the math on inflation-adjustment.

It will be interesting and saddening to see where Biden ends up. He started around $28.4T, and in days we'll be at $35T. If we are adding another trillion every 100 days, this FY may end up at $36.5T, which would be a jump of over $8T in 4yrs. Also, we are well past $1T in interest alone on our debt. That is unfathomable. Biden's FY25 budget is a huge leap in the wrong the direction. He's going to break the country if he gets re-elected (re-selected).

A presidential term is about 1400 days. If we add a trillion every 100 days, Biden could take us to about $50T in debt or more. We may then approach $2T in interest payments alone.
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