I linked you to a Wiki article with specifics - it is footnoted, but it's up to both of us to determine the veracity of that. Sounds like it was scores of TBI and as well as some severely burned soldiers. And these casualties were sustained despite (supposedly) advance warning/knowledge of the attacks from the Space Force.

quote:

You and I see this from the exact opposite angles. I see 2020 as the dog-n-pony show. They lobbed a few missiles within a range where they have reasonable targeting and made sure US bases ended up on high alert. If they were wanting to do that with Israel, there are far easier methods.

1. Fire a dozen or so missiles from Lebanon or Syria. From that range their targeting is far better so they could have been more likely to restrict potential hits to military targets.
2. Send over a few dozen drones from Lebanon or Syria to target government installations. Again, the targeting is better and at such a low altitude (they were flying something like 50-100ft above the ground, I think), the missile defense system would have been worthless.
3. Call Jordan to let them know they are sending missiles and drones through their airspace (instead, they issued a blanket warning to anyone who aided in Israel's defense, which isn't sitting well with Abdullah, even though there is a large Palestinian population in Jordan), knowing Jordan would quickly get word to Israel through allies (thus mitigating possible civilian casualties).

Any one of those would have been clearer as only a "message", they did none thus I see it as being more than simple a message.

I'm not disrespecting or discounting your perspective. You might very well be right on all counts. What I'm saying is - in the context of this thread - it was utterly absurd to have expected "Black Monday" based on what happened. I would submit that regardless of what actually happened, it clearly was simply of a magnitude that was not overly extreme. It was serious, yes. But it wasn't armageddon or anything. If they had truly wanted to start WWIII, can we agree they would have done something MUCH MORE severe than this?

My sense is Iran knows they are operating within clear constraints and they aren't breaching those. Compare this to, say, Russia or Boko Haram.

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Posted by Bard

Definitely NOT an admin

Member since Oct 2008

52042 posts

Posted on 4/16/24 at 1:09 pm to Big Scrub TX

quote:
What I'm saying is - in the context of this thread - it was utterly absurd to have expected "Black Monday" based on what happened.

I can absolutely agree to that. Within the first hour of reports coming in, before anything had been shot down there is wiggle room (but just because of the unknown future at that point), but once Iran said "done-sies" and Israel wasn't sending response missiles, the grounds for any sort of Black Monday quickly disappeared.

quote:
If they had truly wanted to start WWIII, can we agree they would have done something MUCH MORE severe than this?

Sure. But beyond that point is where we diverge because I think that was likely a prelude to more action, until Iran saw the response.

quote:
My sense is Iran knows they are operating within clear constraints and they aren't breaching those.

I think they had been, but they got a little full of themselves and over-reached with the extent to which they went. The entire region is now buzzing about not that they sent missiles nor drones at Israel but the sheer amount of both.

This may work out for them if the rest of the region begins bowing to them becaus they think Iran has become too aggressive and can pull another such onslaught off at any time (I'm skeptical), but it also may backfire by causing others in the region to unite against them (in case that aggression is aimed toward them for any real or imagined slight, see: Jordan).

It's all a tightrope right now. The next step is Israel's. I don't see how they don't respond forcefully, but I also don't see them invading foriegn air space to bomb Tehran. The back and forth, if it's vigorous enough, could cause oil to skyrocket but it's really going to be a day-by-day situation until/unless tensions ease.

This post was edited on 4/16/24 at 1:10 pm

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