re: Southern U.S. Severe Weather & Flooding: April 8-11, 2024

The good news about tomorrow is that the area of concern is pretty well defined. The boundary we see today where the storms and rain are located should cap the northern extent of the greatest threat. The bad news is that, man is it a tricky and messy forecast.

I think the best chance for discrete/semi-discrete storms will be from any remnant outflow boundaries left from the mess that moves East today and tonight. This would be a late morning/early afternoon threat across the Moderate area. The other elevated threat for tornadoes could come if we see a broken line of storms along the front as it moves into the area. Even outside of a tornado threat, the wind probabilities on the outlook suggest 80mph+ winds with storms along that line.

The warm sector gets kind of pinched off as the system moves East into east MS/west AL, so there shouldn't be as much of a chance for storms out ahead of the line, unless we get a storm or two that become front runners. They could pose a long track tornado threat. So, farther east the main threat should be the line itself.