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re: Hurricane Season '24 - Buckle Up - Euro Seasonal 200+ ACE
Posted on 4/4/24 at 9:52 pm to tilco
Posted on 4/4/24 at 9:52 pm to tilco
Also data is flawed across the board as they are much quicker to tag a storm with a name these days. Zero consistency. How can you reconcile data that hasn’t been consistent?
2
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:19 pm to tilco
Those who want to ignorantly stick to the "They say this every year!" nonsense, you do so at your own peril.
Since 2010 CSU has overshot the final tally of the Atlantic hurricane season only three times. That is with their April forecast, or the first forecast they release for every Atlantic season.
They are far more likely to to under shoot the overall named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in a given season than they are to overshoot it.
2018 was their "best" April forecast where they missed each category (named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes) by 1 under. They still forecast that season to be above average.
2020 was their "worst" April forecast where they were under across the board with a forecast for 14 fewer named storms, 6 fewer hurricanes, and 3 fewer major hurricanes. They also forecast that season to be above average.
Their largest spread to the high side for named storms during that timeframe is +5 in 2022.
Since 2010 CSU has overshot the final tally of the Atlantic hurricane season only three times. That is with their April forecast, or the first forecast they release for every Atlantic season.
They are far more likely to to under shoot the overall named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in a given season than they are to overshoot it.
2018 was their "best" April forecast where they missed each category (named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes) by 1 under. They still forecast that season to be above average.
2020 was their "worst" April forecast where they were under across the board with a forecast for 14 fewer named storms, 6 fewer hurricanes, and 3 fewer major hurricanes. They also forecast that season to be above average.
Their largest spread to the high side for named storms during that timeframe is +5 in 2022.
This post was edited on 4/6/24 at 11:48 am
Posted on 4/24/24 at 9:17 pm to tilco
quote:
Also data is flawed across the board as they are much quicker to tag a storm with a name these days.
Named storms have always had the same criteria.
Difference now is satellites have become so good that we're detecting strong we never would have identified prior to the satellite era or even 10 years ago.
That's why you have systems "stealing a name" by topping out at 40 mph and dissipating a day later. Those would have been recorded as invests or depressions in the past.
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