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re: Do experts on the money board agree with what the feds did today?

Posted on 3/29/24 at 8:33 am to
Posted by Art Blakey
Member since Aug 2023
103 posts
Posted on 3/29/24 at 8:33 am to
quote:


A country that has an aging population, an average savings of over $125k per household and that's had negative interest rates for almost two decades?

Consumers hoarding money and then the government siphoning some of that hoard off is completely different than the US economy.


All good points, Japan isn't a valid comparison to us. They are a net exporter. We aren't unless you count govt debt. The US exports bombs, airplanes (not looking great on that front recently), some medical equipment and debt, truckloads of debt. Our relatively low levels of inflation are dependent on foreign buyers of that debt. That sterilizes a lot of our monetary inflation.

The jig was up in 2014 when the Chinese quit buying our debt (there isn't another buyer big enough) but the "debt doesn't matter" illusion rolled on for nearly another decade for two reasons: one, shipping what was left of our industrial base to China so corp America could capture the labor arbitrage was deflationary, and two, the shale revolution kept energy costs down.

The 6T covid printing spree shattered the illusion. Inflation is back for the first time in 40 years and isn't going anywhere. Shale is close to rolling over, underinvestment in reliable energy is starting to bite and Trump and Biden trade policy with China is reversing the formerly deflationary effects of globalization.

LINK

The Fed recently published this^ paper with supporting math that states that the US goes into fiscal dominance immediately with 2% positive real rates. Due to our GRC/twin deficit status we will hit a crisis long before getting anywhere near Japan's gravity defying 260% debt/gdp.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33738 posts
Posted on 3/29/24 at 11:05 am to
quote:

Japan isn't a valid comparison to us. They are a net exporter.
They are a net importer of food and energy. Would you like to swap spots on that?

quote:

Trump and Biden trade policy with China is reversing the formerly deflationary effects of globalization.
I think this is the much bigger story.

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