- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Do experts on the money board agree with what the feds did today?
Posted on 3/28/24 at 9:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 3/28/24 at 9:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Have you ever looked at Japan?
A country that has an aging population, an average savings of over $125k per household and that's had negative interest rates for almost two decades?
Consumers hoarding money and then the government siphoning some of that hoard off is completely different than the US economy.
This post was edited on 3/28/24 at 9:50 pm
Posted on 3/28/24 at 11:29 pm to Bard
quote:We don't?
A country that has an aging population
quote:Is that that much lower than the US?
average savings of over $125k per household
quote:The point is a crippling debt load hasn't been all that crippling. We have no reason to expect the US to "collapse" based on any current read out. Rather, that's wish-casting from those hoping for things to burn.
that's had negative interest rates for almost two decades?
Consumers hoarding money and then the government siphoning some of that hoard off is completely different than the US economy.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 8:33 am to Bard
quote:
A country that has an aging population, an average savings of over $125k per household and that's had negative interest rates for almost two decades?
Consumers hoarding money and then the government siphoning some of that hoard off is completely different than the US economy.
All good points, Japan isn't a valid comparison to us. They are a net exporter. We aren't unless you count govt debt. The US exports bombs, airplanes (not looking great on that front recently), some medical equipment and debt, truckloads of debt. Our relatively low levels of inflation are dependent on foreign buyers of that debt. That sterilizes a lot of our monetary inflation.
The jig was up in 2014 when the Chinese quit buying our debt (there isn't another buyer big enough) but the "debt doesn't matter" illusion rolled on for nearly another decade for two reasons: one, shipping what was left of our industrial base to China so corp America could capture the labor arbitrage was deflationary, and two, the shale revolution kept energy costs down.
The 6T covid printing spree shattered the illusion. Inflation is back for the first time in 40 years and isn't going anywhere. Shale is close to rolling over, underinvestment in reliable energy is starting to bite and Trump and Biden trade policy with China is reversing the formerly deflationary effects of globalization.
LINK
The Fed recently published this^ paper with supporting math that states that the US goes into fiscal dominance immediately with 2% positive real rates. Due to our GRC/twin deficit status we will hit a crisis long before getting anywhere near Japan's gravity defying 260% debt/gdp.
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News