re: The narrative that DJT can win primaries but can't beat Biden. Where does that come from?

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It’s why any read on Trump is so hard because he obviously inspires people to come out in droves to vote for or against him. As a result, he’s not interchangeable with any other candidate in the field

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It's really not much different than the candidates he supported in primaries that got blown out in general elections.

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Elections are decided by folks in the middle



That would be true if 100% of people were voting. 2020 had like 60% of eligible voters vote and it was a record high in recent memory. Elections are made by inspiring your side to come out in force. It’s why any read on Trump is so hard because he obviously inspires people to come out in droves to vote for or against him. As a result, he’s not interchangeable with any other candidate in the field

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This simply isn't true. That's why you have races like Georgia where Kemp wins big over a strong candidate in Abrams while Walker loses to a weak Senator. It's why you have the Treasurer win easily in Arizona but the Trump backed candidates for Senate, Governor, and AG all lose. It's why Youngkin can win as a pretty solid conservative in Virginia. They all appeal to folks in the middle that want low drama and good governance, they don't even care much about policy because they like some issues on both sides. Competence is what wins the middle 10-15%.

The largest block of voters is in the Suburbs and they are the Swing vote. Has been that way for decades and it isn't changing anytime soon. Urban vote is Bluer than ever and Rural is Redder than ever. It's the Suburbs that tend to be 60/40 one way or another depending on the area.

That's why either DeSantis or Haley would have won pretty easily. All the GOP needs is a generic R honestly when you have an idiot like Biden. The Dems had 2 Rockstars in Bill Clinton and Obama that motivated them positively GOP had a Rockstar in Reagan. The Bushes won mainly by being Generic R. It's really just the last 2 cycles that were about how much people disliked the other candidate the most in Hillary or Trump.

Ignore the Swing voters at your peril.