re: 57% of Tommy John surgeries in USA performed on 15-19 year olds .

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the opposite is my experience

The early blooming or favorable birthday beasts all got passed by later developing dudes with good work ethics.

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Yep. Some kids develop hand eye coordination at an earlier age than others. Those kids dominate in the first few years (6-8). Athleticism dominates for the next few years (9-12). Fundamentals really start to take over 12+. Obviously, a kid with freak athleticism has a little more room for error when it comes to fundamentals.