re: Place your bets now for what SCOTUS does with the Colorado Ballot case

I think the OP is pretty close, with just a few changes:

The majority opinion will state the clause does not apply to a POTUS who never took oath for a different political office before becoming POTUS.

That finding, though, will leave open the question of the clause's applicability to other political figures, both State and Federal.

Thomas will write a concurring opinion expressly stating the facts of the case do not support finding Trump engaged in insurrection. Alito might join him.

Others will not address the factual finding except to say Trump was not granted sufficient due process.

At that point I think many of you will be surprised by the mix of opinions. This is not really a conservative or liberal issue; it is a question of what exactly the Republican Congress in the 1860s was trying to accomplish.

Some will say that by repealing sections 14 and 15 of the Enforcement Act of 1870, Congress was ceasing Enforcement of Section 3. Others will fall right in line with the law review article written by the Federalist Society members and leave open the possibility of disqualifying people for lower offices.

There are so many potential issues, I can't see just a blanket ruling that the clause does not apply to a President.