re: Deindustrialization - Have We Become a Poor Country?

quote:

---

If that was true we would have defeated Russia in Ukraine.

---

We aren’t fighting the Russians directly in Ukraine yet. We are mostly giving the Ukrainians older equipment.

quote:

---

Rebuilding, for example, our shipbuilding capacity would take 15 to 20 years. This isn’t the 1940s where we could retool existing plants for wartime production, critically, we also don’t have the trained workforce for it either.

---

But the Navy’s goal for its shipbuilding is spread out over 35 years. The current ship building rate is 11 per year, with a goal of 360 ships by the 2060’s. Without reference to what the security situation looks like, why would we need to change our shipbuilding capacity? Retooling industrial capacity over a generation seems less concerning when the Navy has 30 year plans. Again, more does not = better.

quote:

---

If Ukraine is so important, if winning is so vital, and retooling our economy is so easy, then why didn’t we do that?

---

The US can do a lot of things at once. And pointing out the US has that ability doesn’t mean that it will happen. If the US needed to transition to a wartime economy, as the Russians have, it is well within the productive capacity of the nation.

quote:

---

Are we choosing to actively sabotage Ukraine then? Why do we want Ukraine to lose?

---

The piecemeal strategy of aid release has definitely hampered the Ukrainians.

quote:

---

They actually dominate the air. The introduction of their version of a JDAM dramatically change the air war.

---

At no point during this war has Russia ‘dominated’ the air, at least not in the way that the US has seen domination of airspace. And given they’ve lost over 30 jets that would be considered ‘modern,’ I’m not sure that it is an argument I believe. At least until we get a per sortie figure.

quote:

---

They’re slowly grinding their way through the Ukrainians. Arestovich said Ukraine has lost 300k dead. Which means Ukraine has suffered perhaps 900k to 1200k wounded.

---

I don’t trust your casualty loss figures, given your calculations early in the war.

quote:

---

The death toll, and Russias firepower is what’s allowing them to advance in places like Mariynka, and Avdiivka.

---

They’ve advanced at a snail’s pace in the last year. They have the manpower advantage and the resource advantage, and yet are still bogged down in a country which should, theoretically, be no match for them. They’ve reorganized and adapted well, but I’m skeptical of their ability against a country like Turkey, let alone the full brunt of NATO.