re: Does the Dow finish the year above or below 30k?

quote:

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Really? If it goes down 6%, that'll be super meaningful?

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First, let's correct something: per the Dow's closing yesterday, dropping below 30k would require a drop of 8%.

Second, "super meaningful" is your poor interpretation of what I said. It would be another indicator of incoming economic problems. If you consider that "super meaningful" or not is up to you.

Next, the Dow usually goes up from 11/01-01/01. This means that a drop of 6% over the course of that period would be very abnormal.

Now add to this that we're looking at a likely recession starting in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.

All that taken together, yes. The Dow dropping 8+% during the busiest time of the year with a possible recession looming would indeed mean "there are bigger things to worry about than the Dow."