re: Housing prices and Interest rates

quote:

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While I don't dispute that entirely, I wonder how much of an effect AirBNB and VRBO are on that.

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The old saying about the 3 most important things in real estate comes to mind, but we also have to take economy into account (both macro and micro). If we really are heading into a Recession (regardless of how it's defined) by Q4/23-Q1/24, a lot of those owners will likely lose their asses (unless they swap over to making those home full-time rentals).

The current pic going around of the AirBNB spaces in Los Angeles is a good example. As more businesses and consumers flee California due to crime and rising costs, tourism will eventually take a hit (state tourism numbers can be very "iffy" so I really have to question that their 2023 numbers are up but that's a different topic). As that dries up, owners will have to make a decision on whether to make it into a long-term rental (whether Section 8 or not), risk staying with the AirBNB/VRBO model, sell the home or just walk away from it (if they bought late in the game at a price so over-valued that no one will/can touch it with interest rates as high as they are).

The longer the Recession continues, the less demand for AirBNB/VRBO places, the more pressure owners will be under to change.
For some place like Pensacola Beach, I can see those sorts of rentals having a better chance. For some place like Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Monroe, etc... even the relatively few available now will likely change to something else within the next year or two.