re: My Theory on What Happened in Israel.

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There is a meme circulating accusing Bibi Netanyahu of having advance knowledge of the Hamas attack. According to this narrative, Bibi let it happen, believing it would be Israel’s 9-11 and that he could rally support for this divided government. I don’t buy it. Why? First, because he had to make deals with political opponents in order to form a government I find it hard to believe that those folks would go along with this kind of scam. Second, there are a lot of people in Mossad, Shin Bet (aka Israeli Security Agency) and Unit 8200 who do not like Netanyahu and would rat him out in a heartbeat if he pulled a stunt like this. Third, notwithstanding all of his flaws, I do not believe Bibi is the kind of man who would knowingly allow the murder of children, women and elderly. So what the hell happened?

Hamas is old school when it comes to plotting and planning. The Hamas leaders, I am told, shy away from social media, computers, smart phones and text messages (even WhatsAp and Signal). The do the planning and scheming in person or via couriers with hand written documents. How do you get that information? You have to recruit a spy — someone who is part of the network who will agree to rat on his friends. Despite a reputation for having quite a stable of human assets in terrorist groups, it appears Israel came up dry with a Hamas source.

There is a report that Egypt may have warned Israel. I find that plausible. That means that Mossad did not find the report credible or ignored it. That does happen in these intelligence organizations. But that is not some evil plot, that is good, old-fashioned human incompetence.

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