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re: Will the S&P finish the year
Posted on 9/25/23 at 9:43 am to Bard
Posted on 9/25/23 at 9:43 am to Bard
quote:
What do you think the rally will be built on?
Overly bearish sentiment/positioning and positive earnings surprises for Q3. I also think its highly unlikely we see a true recession until the labor market falls apart which until that happens, melt up.
Posted on 9/25/23 at 9:58 am to Triple Bogey
quote:
we'll be down into the middle of October and then rally end of year.
This.Think we hit 4000/3900 on S&P in middle of Oct then rally back a little above where we are now by end of year.
This post was edited on 9/25/23 at 9:59 am
Posted on 9/25/23 at 10:22 am to Triple Bogey
quote:
Overly bearish sentiment/positioning and positive earnings surprises for Q3.
Fair enough. I see the spike in PPI over the last few months making positive earnings more difficult, but Lord knows I have been wrong before.
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quote:
I also think its highly unlikely we see a true recession until the labor market falls apart
100% agree. JPow has stated that an increase in Unemployment is one of the big indicators they are looking for to signal pause/reversal on rates. I think we've seen too much borrowing and spending (and borrowing to pay for borrowing) for that to not end up being a snowballing effect (ie: once jobs start being cut, consumers are no longer going to be able to afford to even just service all of the debt they've created).
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