re: BK's Tenure: Beat Bama, win the West, start year 2 at 0-1

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My daughter is a good student, but if she did great for most of the year then badly failed 3 of her final 4 tests I would be concerned.

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Would you completely write her off as a failure going forward and she can never right the ship and it's just a lost cause?

Those are the posters this OP is for, and they are 100s of posts and dozens of threads with posters in complete meltdown mode right now.

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When a negative trend develops, you don’t go back to a period before the hire and say “but before we knew anything, we’d have taken this, right?”.

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If you had success, then a small sample size of a negative trend, would you completely pull a project and call it a failure? That's the apt analogy.