re: US crude output to rise to record 12.76 million bpd in 2023

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There’s a war on oil!

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there was a dramatic tightening of oil exploration on Fed lands on day one of the biden admin, the difference was made up on state and private lands and opening up the chokes on producing wells on fed lands

The Trump role in this goes back to the Iranian drone attack on the Aramco refinery in 2019, we declined to help the Saudis attack Iran, the royal family got pissed and decided to go for broke funding their reform policies inside KSA. The saudis cut production to raise revenues and doubled down with the russians after the ukraine war sanctions hit. this hasnt hurt as much because we went from 25% of our oil consumption in tge 90s coming from KSA to now 13%

there were a lot of US wells that were drilled but not produced in the mid 2010s to late 2010s that became economical with higher prices. GOM has seen a large uptick on higher prices and stockpiled FED leases already purchased. large finds in the delaware basin have helped soften the saudis strategy as well