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re: 2016 Election Swing
Posted on 6/4/23 at 2:19 pm to tigertownnashh
Posted on 6/4/23 at 2:19 pm to tigertownnashh
quote:
I wasn’t old enough to vote in that election but my question is genuinely what happened?
How did so many people get it wrong about who would win.
-Trump outworked Hillary in the midwest swing states
-Jill Stein played spoiler in the midwest swing states
-Trump won the vote among those who disliked both candidates but were driven to vote against someone
-Late-deciding voters broke for Trump
Those were the biggest reasons. The 2nd point is big because Trump carried MI/PA/WI by approximately 78K votes combined. Jill Stein was on the ballot and took 132K votes away from Hillary in those 3 states. Without Jill Stein, Hillary wins those 3 states and the Electoral College.
2
Posted on 6/4/23 at 2:28 pm to RammerJammer91
quote:
-Trump outworked Hillary in the midwest swing states
-Jill Stein played spoiler in the midwest swing states
-Trump won the vote among those who disliked both candidates but were driven to vote against someone
-Late-deciding voters broke for Trump
Those were the biggest reasons. The 2nd point is big because Trump carried MI/PA/WI by approximately 78K votes combined. Jill Stein was on the ballot and took 132K votes away from Hillary in those 3 states. Without Jill Stein, Hillary wins those 3 states and the Electoral College.
All of this too.
Just a really lucky confluence of factors (which will never be repeated again) that resulted in Trump barely squeaking by the most disliked presidential candidate in history.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 8:16 am to RammerJammer91
quote:Eh, Gary Johnson hurt Trump more than Jill Stein hurt Hillary.
-Trump outworked Hillary in the midwest swing states
-Jill Stein played spoiler in the midwest swing states
-Trump won the vote among those who disliked both candidates but were driven to vote against someone
-Late-deciding voters broke for Trump
Those were the biggest reasons. The 2nd point is big because Trump carried MI/PA/WI by approximately 78K votes combined. Jill Stein was on the ballot and took 132K votes away from Hillary in those 3 states. Without Jill Stein, Hillary wins those 3 states and the Electoral College.
Take Gary Johnson out and Trump blows Hillary away, even with Jill Stein on the ballot. He realistically wins New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada and Minnesota in addition to the states he had already flipped.
This post was edited on 6/5/23 at 8:23 am
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