If we don't enter a recession soon I'm really going to be worried for I Love Bama. Hopefully he shorted BUD to help him through these difficult times.

As for your question, Sloane made a good point. Hadn't really looked at it like that. I don't think the answer to your question is 1 or 2. If we do enter a recession, I think it's more likely 8-12 months down the road rather than 3 months. Although, my best guess right now tells me number 3 is probably most likely. I think the markets will essentially stay sideways for the next year or so.

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Posted by I Love Bama

Alabama

Member since Nov 2007

37770 posts

Posted on 5/26/23 at 8:14 am to saint tiger225

quote:
If we don't enter a recession soon I'm really going to be worried for I Love Bama.

It's really this simple.

All markets are fricked. I don't understand how you guys can't look at these markets objectively and not see we are on the edge of a cliff.

Commercial Real Estate - Everyone bought with ballon loans coming due with rents that can't support the new interest rates. 100% fricked.

Residential Real Estate - Transaction levels are approaching lock down velocity with interest rates showing no sign of coming down. Only thing keeping it from crashing is low unemployment rates. If we hang on to low unemployment, we might can weather this storm.

Stock Market - Much harder to predict as people much smarter than myself frick up their predictions all the time. My personal guess is we have many more banks go under due to the high interest rate environment that spreads throughout the market.

Crypto - LOL. fricked (but still stacking)

We have been living in a low interest rate bubble since 2008 and those days are over.

If the Feds pivot and drop rates then yes, everything goes back up while sacrificing what is left of the dollar.

OP - Yes. 100% Recession in 2-6 months.

This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 8:16 am

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