re: Severe Weather 4/4-4/5 - severe storms ongoing from Arkansas to Michigan.

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SPC just extended the moderate and enhanced sections further West into the more populated areas of NWA

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This is a tricky forecast. There hasn't been much in the way of consistency across models. That includes everything from the speed and position of the trough to where the dry line sets up and how far east it gets to temps across the warm sector.

The biggest issue at play is dry air aloft and a cap that will be in place for the southern mode. That is also a contributor as to why storms will fire late and why people shouldn't scream "bust" early with this one. The dry air will have to be overcome before storms can really take off. That could happen well after dark when the LLJ kicks in. Shear won't be an issue, CAPE won't be an issue, but that dry air and cap that is in the place can be a failure mode.

We haven't gotten any observed soundings across the area since this morning. Hopefully, we get some from the Noon hour to see how things are shaping up.