re: China would win head to head

Not if they couldn't break out of the South China Sea. We would choke off their trade and watch them starve to death both financially, then literally, then politically. There would be some land battles around Burma and such but plenty of choke holds to keep the enemy pinned while the long game destroys them. They would turn the whole region against them when they lashed out to break the blockade or try to beat the US to the punch by landing beachhead forces in prep before declaring war