re: Diving Deeper on Origin Materials?

Basically their business model is to replace the oil used to make many plastics with drop-in, carbon negative, chemically identical replacements produced from cellulosic feedstock (mostly wood waste products). In contrast to almost every other "green" product out there that has a substantial price premium compared to conventional products, Origin is supposed to be cost competitive with oil even at $40/barrel, so in fact they hope to produce these materials with a "green discount". More in depth company summaries can be found in the investor presentation links below: LINK

I view it as a binary play, either the tech works and it'll be a multi bagger (most likely from a buyout from a bigger player like BASF or BP), or the tech doesn't work and it'll be zero. My guess is 80/20 odds it works. We should know the answer on the tech scaling or not in the next 6-9 months based on product that will be produced from their O1 factory that is currently undergoing commissioning in Ontario.

Not a fan of most "green plays" or SPAC's, but I'm betting that Origin is a diamond in the rough. The fact they have poached a lot of top talent from Dow and Exxon is a bullish indicator.

Management has 75M total earnout shares that would vest if $15/share reached by June '24, $20/share by June '25, and $25/share by June '26, so they are heavily incentivized to avoid dilution before June '26. Between PAB bonds, tax incentives, and government cost shares (Inflation Reduction Act grants, etc), there's a pathway where hopefully they never have to issue more equity which is a great advantage in this brutal macro environment where many companies will have to dilute themselves into oblivion to survive and/or finance growth.

My guess is, assuming O1 proves scale, it should be at ~$10 by year end '23. I will start to take some shares off the table at $20, probably in '25 if I had to guess. Could be a $100 stock by 2030 if they don't get bought out, but my guess is they'll get bought out before then.