I’ve been bearish on longer dated rates but they’ve fallen too far too fast IMO. There is substantial downside risks 2+ year rates IMO. I think we see 4% on the 10y before we see 3%.

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Posted by Pendulum

Member since Jan 2009

7068 posts

Posted on 12/7/22 at 9:13 pm to slackster

For sure too much to fast, but 10yr went from what? 4+% to 3.4% in one month since CPI for October. Dec 13 November CPI; if it were to say, surprise to the downside, 3% doesn't seem that far. If it shows a slower than expected decline, you are definitely right. The markets are in the process of blowing it's load realizing 9% inflation is over; the markets haven't yet realized that getting from 4-5% to 2% will require unemployment to go up unless we magically bring back productivity and that is not happening. I'm playing for a light CPI and I'm going to unload alot of these calls if that happens.

This post was edited on 12/7/22 at 9:16 pm

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Posted by Pendulum

Member since Jan 2009

7068 posts

Posted on 12/23/22 at 10:07 am to slackster

quote:
I think we see 4% on the 10y before we see 3%.

quote:
In reference to TLT calls on 12/7: I think most of the money on those calls has been made, but good luck.

Looking like you nailed both of these calls, you posted about the tlt calls right at the actual peak

I was up 80% on my calls when you posted that. Ended up selling half of the calls I had at the end of the day just before powell's speech same day as Nov CPI for 60% a few days later, and then I sold some more at a loss in the last week. Hogs get slaughtered. Still holding a handful of Jan '24 calls of various different strikes from 112 to 120. Think I'll just sit on em, not much weight anymore.

Maybe long yields haven't peaked.

This post was edited on 12/23/22 at 10:15 am

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