re: Whats the next event that could send the markets back down to the 3500 level or lower??

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If he reiterates the market is smoking crack, that could be the catalyst.

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Not a chance at this point I believe. Last couple of week's they are out verbally signaling that bond market is priced appropriately. If they didn't think that, they would be quiet, regardless of what they plan on doing in December. The verbal queues are specifically to guide the markets while their actual actions are to guide the economy. Every single word from a board member is carefully curated and planned.

Inflation is about to start meaningfully falling, whether the reason is good or bad won't matter for a few more months imo, it's just all about fed slowing until next driver which will be earnings in late Jan, thru Feb. Companies guided down last earnings cycle, if they then miss; and the fed is paused.... look out below unless fed actually pivots which would also be a interesting signal this quick.

2023 is gonna be interesting. But I got to give fed credit, they got what they wanted by front loading and jawboning as hawkish as possible, knowing they couldn't actually raise rates to 5 to 6% They are about 30% thru threading the impossible needle.