Bowl Predictions

Cotton or Peach any way you look at it IMO

no outback or capital one?

edit: could we fall low enough to go to the independance?

If LSU wins out, they'll no doubt be in contention for a BCS bowl. The rankings have smiled upon LSU despite a lackluster performance so far this year (or, at least, lackluster with respect to what could have been). At any rate, winning out will definitely boost the schedule strength in the eyes of the computers -- a win over #1 Alabama would be great, as would a win over bowl-bound Ole Miss. Arkansas and Troy will likely hurt a little bit, but there should be a huge net gain.

If LSU loses to Alabama or Ole Miss, then its best destination is the Capital One Bowl...and even then that's doubtful. I'd say Cotton Bowl in all likelihood -- second place in the West generally goes there unless first place ends up there, and with three SEC losses there's no way the Capital One will take LSU over Florida/Georgia/Alabama.

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If LSU wins out, they'll no doubt be in contention for a BCS bowl

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i doubt it

hmm.. SEC game will be Bama-UF

BCS: SEC Champ and UGA
Cap One: SEC loser
Cotton: LSU
Outback: South Carolina
Peach: Kentucky
Music City: Vandy

not enough teams for Liberty and Independence (unless Auburn beats UGA or Alabama )

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no outback or capital one?

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Capital One will be the next best SEC team not in a BCS bowl and preferably, a team in the East. If we don't make it to the SECCG, then I see UGA going to Capital One.

Cotton or Peach would pick us before the Outback bowl, and Outback tends to take an East team too.

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not enough teams for Liberty and Independence (unless Auburn beats UGA or Alabama )

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Ole Miss???

Why not? They're in the mid-to-high teens right now, sure, but they'd skyrocket with a win over Alabama in all three facets of the BCS standings, and the human polls would probably look kindly upon a win over Ole Miss.

And about the Peach Bowl:

There's no way LSU goes to the Peach Bowl, even at 5-3 SEC. For that to happen, you need at least four SEC teams with a better conference record than LSU, and with the at-large bowl selection system, it's likely a second team besides the SEC champion (prime example: 12-1 Alabama following a loss to Florida in the SECCG) would get an at-large bid, which means you need three more teams with a better conference record.

For all of this to even be determinable, you need prediction of conference finishes. So without further adieu,

Florida: Champion, 12-1 (8-1)
Alabama: West representative, 12-1 (8-1)
Georgia: 6-2
LSU: 5-3
Vanderbilt: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Kentucky: 4-4
Ole Miss: 4-4

As you can see, there's a clusterfrick of 4-4 teams in the SEC...but LSU shouldn't finish in that pack, they should even with a loss to Alabama be 5-3.

That said...

Scenario 1: LSU over Alabama - A

BCSCG: Florida (12-1, SEC champs)
BCSAL: LSU (10-2)
Capital One: Alabama (11-2)
Cotton: Georgia (10-2)
Outback: South Carolina (8-4)
Peach: Kentucky (8-4)
Liberty: Ole Miss (7-5)
Music City: Vanderbilt (7-5)

Scenario 2: LSU over Alabama - B

BCSCG: Florida (12-1, SEC champs)
BCSAL: Alabama (11-2)
Capital One: LSU (10-2)
Cotton: Georgia (10-2)
Outback: South Carolina (8-4)
Peach: Kentucky (8-4)
Liberty: Ole Miss (7-5)
Music City: Vanderbilt (7-5)

I wouldn't be surprised to see this -- remember Kansas and Missouri last year? Even though Missouri beat Kansas, Kansas went based on overall record (and probably fan turnout at the bowl game), even though Missouri won the head-to-head.

Scenario 3: Alabama over LSU

BCSCG: Florida (12-1, SEC champs)
BCSAL: Alabama (12-1)
Capital One: Georgia (10-2)
Cotton: LSU (9-3)
Outback: South Carolina (8-4)
Peach: Kentucky (8-4)
Liberty: Ole Miss (7-5)
Music City: Vanderbilt (7-5)


Seems obvious to me what will happen.

EDIT: No way Arkansas beats South Carolina -- Arkansas has dropped off dramatically from last year while South Carolina's weaknesses in that game (inconsistency at QB, lack of run defense) have been completely turned around. Also, Arkansas's M.O. this year is what South Carolina's best against: passing attacks.

And with that loss, Arkansas ain't bowl-eligible.

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Florida: Champion, 12-1 (8-1)
Alabama: West representative, 12-1 (8-1)
Georgia: 6-2
LSU: 5-3
Vanderbilt: 4-4
South Carolina: 4-4
Kentucky: 4-4
Ole Miss: 4-4

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If that's how the records are, this is how I see it:
UF and Bama in BCS bowls
UGA in Capital One
LSU in Cotton
who cares beyond this point...

If Bama doesn't go to a BCS bowl:
much tougher to predict b/c Cap One may take Bama instead of UGA, but Cotton won't take UGA, which puts us there. That leaves Peach/Outback for UGA. If Cap One chooses UGA, Bama goes Cotton and we're in Peach/Outback.

UF in BCS bowl
UGA/Bama in Capital One
Bama/LSU in Cotton (depends on Cap One pick, def. not UGA)
LSU/UGA in Peach
LSU/UGA/USC in Outback