My bad. I meant 10-2 not 11-1.

The match-up predictor is based off ESPN FPI. So, FPI shows LSU at 10-2 on a game by game basis, but has them finishing with 8 wins on the season? I’d be interested to see how they calculate that.

This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 10:03 am

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Posted by DrEdgeLSU

Baton Rouge, LA

Member since Dec 2006

8191 posts

Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:22 am to GeauxTigers247

quote:
The match-up predictor is based off ESPN FPI. So, FPI shows LSU at 10-2 on a game by game basis, but has them finishing with 8 wins on the season? I’d be interested to see how they calculate that.

Pretty simple:

A 75% chance of winning gives you a predicted W-L record of 0.75-0.25. Add all of them up and you'll get a different number than 10-2.

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Posted by The Seaward

Baton Rouge

Member since Jan 2006

11362 posts

Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:26 am to GeauxTigers247

quote:
The match-up predictor is based off ESPN FPI. So, FPI shows LSU at 10-2 on a game by game basis, but has them finishing with 8 wins on the season? I’d be interested to see how they calculate that

If you add up the win probabilities, it comes out to 5.25 more wins. Which would be 8.25 on the season.

If a model predicts a team to have a 51% percent chance to win every game it plays, that does not mean it thinks it will go 12-0.

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Posted by SOL2

Dallas burbs

Member since Jan 2020

4849 posts

Posted on 9/29/22 at 12:48 pm to GeauxTigers247

I'm sticking with my 7 or 8 wins, unless we beat Auburn by 20+, then I will bump it to 8 or 9.
I like we are getting 2 or 3 back in the secondary over the next couple of weeks. We need Burns back by UTn.

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