re: Did the South ever really have a chance (Civil War)?

Winning for the South meant convincing the Northern populace that the war wasnt worth it. Up until July 1863, it was extremely possible.
If Lee won Gettysburg, again very possible, Southern victory and a probable Lincoln electoral loss in 64 were both likely. McClellan's platform was to sue for peace. As late as early summer 1864, most thought Lincoln was going to lose (including Lincoln). Grant and Sherman ensured his victory by winning on the battlefield.