re: Lightyear flops earning only $51 million opening weekend

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it should have been able to compete with Frozen.

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Why? Spinoffs usually don't do nearly what the originals do, unless they're Minions. This spin off took one character, a toy, and took him away from the familiar setting of the series, and made him a regular person. It looks like a generic animated movie? The concept of an origin story for a toy is going to go above most kids' heads. Adults didn't grow up with a human version of Buzz, and having Tim Allen there wouldn't have made that more palatable.

That said, quality and profit don't have a direct relationship. People didn't go see this movie because marketing made it unclear who this was for, and didn't make it clear how this Buzz is connected to the toy. People didn't rush out to see something that looked vaguely familiar but generic.

If this holds 50% or more of its audience in weekend 2, we'll have a better idea of whether or not people like it. And animated movies tend to hold on in theaters for a while. I don't think it will hold that audience, though.

I don't mean to play the results here. I thought Disney's own tracking of around $70 million for the weekend made sense. $51 million and second place is pretty surprising. But I absolutely do not understand your premise that this should have been as massive a hit as any other Toy Story or Disney property like Frozen.