Star rankings for NFL draft Rd.1

Just shows the HS recruiting rankings are pretty good. The percent of 5 stars drafted is much higher than 4-NR.

It just reinforces that 4* and 5* rankings get it right a lot because they have far less in recruiting rankings. That means the probability is much higher to have success with 5* and 4* recruits. Also shows how their limited resources are when lots fall through the cracks and develop. It's not rocket science here.

5* is best bet followed by 4* based on the first round. That's how it's done on recruiting and is correct. There's only about 30 5* a year if that sometimes so to have 9 drafted is amazing. I think there's over 200 4* every year and then obviously 3* is much higher than that.

They grade it as:

5* - instant impact player with high draft pick written all over them

4* - all-american potential player who has high draft ceiling

3* - usually raw but has NFL ceiling and sometimes a varying late/high draft ceiling potential or all-american potential after heavy development. raw that need refining and usually slow developers.

2*, 1*, NR are players that the recruiting services simply shite the bed on because their resources are limited. They're not a big name, they don't go to camps, they slip through cracks. Obviously all have to develop some slower than others which is hard to project and why you get your busts.

quote:

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On3 has it broke down.
5 star -9
4 star -13
3 star -6
2 star -1
Not rated -3

9 out of 32 annual 5 stars 1st rounders. Just thought was interesting.

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Ok so lets look at stats I found online with a quick search.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/1/30/18202661/recruiting-stars-rankings-high-school-football

310,000 plus HS seniors playing football

30 5* (0.01% of class)
380 4* (0.13% of class)
1,328 3* (0.44% of class)
1,859 2* (0.62% of class)
296,403 unrated (98.88% of class)

Ok so lets make a few assumption. Lets say that the ratios remain pretty consistent for 3*-5* player exiting via the draft. I'll assume that all the 3, 4, & 5* players were signed by a college team.

30 5* = 1.73%
380 4* = 21.86%
1,328 3* = 76.41%

Of this draft

5* =28.13% of first round picks equating to 30.% of the total 5*s available

5* =40.63% of first round picks equating to 3.42% of the total 4*s available

3* =18.75% of first round picks equating to 0.45% of the total 3*s available

As has been discussed over and over again on this board, the recruiting ranking systems seem to be a fairly good predicter of outcome, even if it is not perfect.

What happened to Christopher Allen and Slade Bolden




Gumps from da Boot undrafted


I respecked their decision.