re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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And to your second point obviously they could. Is it likely? I doubt it.

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WTF makes you doubt it? Almost every military blogger and poster on social media is saying the same thing. Ukraine is digging in. Meanwhile, Ukrainian pilots are currently training of F16s. Poland is repairing Ukrainian Leopards, Rheinmental continues to restore Leopard 1s and deliver them to Ukraine. Ukraine has expanded its draft class size by 200,000, and France is getting ready to send the French Foreign Legion (FFL). Putin does not attack France if the FFL deploys to Ukraine (which I highly doubt Putin is stupid enough to directly attack France) then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.

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Russia has been doing a lot of the same type of signaling that they are "all-in" in their own way.

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Russia has already gone all in and they only gained 86 km^2 in March and April of this year. It is not going to get better for them since 90% of the tanks it is sending to the front from factories are 1950s-1970s era T55s and T62s with new spark plugs and a new paint jobs. The good old fashioned RPG7 which Ukraine still has millions of can knock those tanks out. Russia will launch big offensives this summer and will probably make some gains but unless they change up tactics those gains will be limited and casualties will be high.


ETA: France has denied the French Foreign Legion being deployed to Ukraine. The claim that the FFL had deployed to Ukraine appears to have originated with Russia so it’s likely fake news. I have updated my post to reflect that. I will now go do boes and toes on broken glass for an hour.