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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/29/24 at 6:48 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 4/29/24 at 6:48 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
from a strictly national interest standpoint, Ukraine is not a strategic partner to the US.
This was exactly Obama's viewpoint, and why he shrugged off Putin's actions in Crimea and the Donbas...
And it might have remained the US position, except for one thing I've watched and read geo-political experts say over and over again:
When the invasion started, the US government thought "well this will be over by lunchtime and we'll just slap some sanctions on Russia like always and see what Europe collectively thinks..."
But then... the Russian military proved to be very inept... "not a modern military at all, just a mob with guns... and nukes."
And that changed the calculus, because if they can't quickly defeat Ukraine's almost non-existent at the time military, when they go up against any actual NATO force, like Poland or Romania, it will be a bloodbath. The entire conventional Russian military will be annihilated and eliminated in a matter of days, if not hours. And we know from their published doctrine that when they are in that position, with their conventional forces defeated, they view the use of Nuclear weapons as justified.
All of the people whose jobs it is to study Putin down to knowing which direction he wipes his arse in say he would do it... he's always been a bit pissy over the fact the US is the country that ever got use nukes and have the world cower.
And, we also have to factor in that like everything else we've seen of the Russian military, they might not even work properly. They might aim for our silos out in the desert but hit heavy population centers.
And that all instantly made Ukraine a vital US security focus.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:11 pm to Lee B
... this is also why the decisions have been made about not arming Ukraine to the point where they decimate the Russians too quickly, for the same reason. Russia has to collapse from within. The problem is that the Republican House obstruction hurt Ukraine more than we were supposed to allow.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:16 pm to Lee B
quote:
And that changed the calculus, because if they can't quickly defeat Ukraine's almost non-existent at the time military
The core of the Ukrainian arm was experienced, and had some real training. They had been fighting since 2014. Russias problem was that they were grossly outnumbered, in May of 22 the Ukrainians had at least a 6:1 manpower advantage.
quote:
when they go up against any actual NATO force, like Poland or Romania, it will be a bloodbath. The entire conventional Russian military will be annihilated and eliminated in a matter of days, if not hours.
The Russians now have the most experienced army in the world when it comes to conventional warfare. In any fictional scenario, where they were fighting either Poland or Romania, they would dismantle them. For both Poland and Romania, their last major military experience dates back to 1945.
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